The most likely outlook for the world economy in 2012 is a global growth recession with global real GDP growth in 2012 of about 3%. The overall economic outlook reflects a full-scale recession in Europe, stagnation or moderate recession in the U.K., near-trend growth in the U.S., continued expansion in Japan, and moderate slowdowns in China and mos...
Investment strategies based purely on expertise in a particular industry or asset class will be insufficient in 2012; developing a broader view is essential to navigate the increasingly correlated environment. This comprehensive overview is intended to help investors refine their perspective across a host of markets, economies, and industries.
The "can" that policymakers have been kicking ineffectually down the road for the past few years may finally kick back in 2012 and compel positive, long-term structural change. That said, we are facing another year of sharp market volatility and a continued short supply of quality yield.
The key theme in the second half of 2011 was one of moderate, sub-par economic growth accompanied by modest inflation pressures and no change in the federal funds target rate. Expect more of the same in 2012, with the economy expanding 2.0% for the year and small gains coming from many sectors of the economy.
The tone heading into 2012 is cautious, and the year is likely to be one of continued rolling crises. But the U.S. economy has come far and is on much firmer footing than it was in 2008. It is our view that, moving through 2012, the U.S. economy will continue on a path of recovery, while we recognize the need for investors to be agile and diligent.
The U.S. will continue its expansion in 2012, but solid global growth depends on Europe experiencing only a moderate recession and the emerging market economies gaining momentum as the year progresses. Less inflationary pressure should help growth, but intermittent financial market pressures from the European debt crisis likely will cap investor ri...
To cope with potential rising inflation, it is important to ensure that portfolios include meaningful exposure to a broader set of assets than just stocks and bonds, especially assets that tend to preserve value in an inflationary environment. This paper reviews the role of real assets in an investor's portfolio and introduces a comprehensive appro...
This essay is devoted to understanding how two key investment principles – a long-term equity time horizon and diversification – have performed in past periods of severe economic dislocation. Analysis demonstrates that maintaining these principles has proven extremely valuable, particularly in periods of volatility.
Tail risk can be reduced by enhancing a portfolio's overall risk-return characteristics. Often this approach will blend several distinct strategies: broader diversification, volatility-based risk management, and drawdown control, perhaps combined with active management strategies such as managed futures or low-beta equities.
Every family has stories of success and failure, hardships and recovery, lessons learned and long forgotten, and it is these stories that enable members of the family to gain a sense of the family's uniqueness, connect with the source of the family's financial wealth, and deal with losses and transitions. The author suggests three ways to begin pre...
In the wake of SEC regulation, the best course of action for every family with a family office is to identify promptly the most desirable options for bringing their family into compliance by March 30, 2012 and, at the same time, helping it to turn arid compliance dollars into an optimal structure for achieving its long-term value.
The new regulatory requirements stemming from the passage of Dodd-Frank will certainly be a costly addition to the reporting framework of the alternative investment industry. However, this new era of heightened regulatory and compliance procedures also brings the potential benefits of financial stability and investor protection.
Early-stage direct deals involving start-up businesses, real estate developments or similar high-risk, high-return opportunities should be evaluated very closely on the merits as well as the risks. Each opportunity is different and all require unique in-depth due diligence, but there are some general questions that should always be asked, the autho...
As the European debt crisis has evolved, shifts in sentiment have caused dramatic swings in capital markets; swings not easily characterized by underlying investment fundamentals. This uncertainty has driven Italian bond yields to dangerously elevated levels while the yield on German one-year notes turned negative – hardly signs of a healthy econom...
Europe has entered a new stage of the debt crisis, as funding stress in the banking sector has risen to extremes. The bond spreads of Belgium, Austria and France have risen to 290, 150 and 155bps respectively, record highs and 5 to 6 standard deviations above norm. The current trends may be unsustainable if left unchecked for more than a few weeks.