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The economic outlook has become slightly more mixed, especially in regard to the manufacturing sector and consumer spending after adjustments for inflation. Driving these inflation statistics and market anxieties higher were oil prices, and with the average price of gasoline in the U.S. nearing $4 per gallon once again, real questions have emerged ...

The pace of U.S. job growth in the next few months will not only determine the outcome of the November presidential election but also whether there will be a sustainable economic recovery. If the sharp slowdown in job creation in March is a precursor for developments in subsequent months as we suspect, the mid-year slowdown witnessed in the past co...

The weak March U.S. jobs report caught investors by surprise, but we think it’s reflective of the muted growth environment faced by developed nations. U.S. economic activity was likely boosted in the first quarter by exceptionally mild weather, and we should expect some payback during coming months

We continue to recommend a focus on the middle of the risk spectrum and investments with better prospective risk-reward. Included in this space are higher quality equities (with lower economic sensitivity), mortgage and corporate bonds (both investment grade and some high yield debt), global bonds, options-based strategies, and absolute return stra...

Modern portfolio theory, while highly useful in illustrating the relative tradeoffs between current and prospective portfolio allocations, should not be used as the primary framework for constructing portfolios for wealthy families. Investors are better served, the authors say, by a goals-based approach that recognizes multiple levels of risk toler...

Since 2008, commodities have been highly correlated with equities and other risk assets. As a result, many investors have begun to question whether the diversification benefit of investing in commodities has evaporated. A new report, however, finds that the recent spike in correlation is very much in line with the historical pattern around large ma...

The author discusses the re-emergence of domestic energy production, illustrates the evolving opportunities and risks brought about by this re-emergence for the United States and briefly touches on potential investment opportunities. This paper has a particular focus on natural gas, the most significant source of domestic energy.

Rental growth is likely to slow in many markets. However, low vacancies and limited construction pipelines as well as the fairly robust global economy should limit any downside in most cities. Regionally, we believe direct commercial real estate in Australia, China, Germany, France, Canada and selected U.S. and Latin American markets should outperf...

Reporting requirements for capital asset sales have changed, and the IRS is now in a better position to verify and track your activity. This article explains the IRS’ equation: verify + track + match data + audit = increased tax collection.

The SEC and Cayman Islands Monetary Authority are establishing mechanisms for ongoing consultation, cooperation, and exchange of information related to the oversight of regulated entities that operate across national borders. Each agency intends to provide the other with assistance obtaining information that is needed to ensure compliance within th...

We continue to be optimistic that earnings will validate market prices, suggesting equities will offer greater reward than bonds. Selected equities also have dividend yields above those available from investment-grade bonds. In many instances, these dividends are supported by growing earnings, raising the likelihood of their increase.

We remain vigilant in assessing near-term and longer-term risks, including U.S. austerity, resurfacing of Eurozone tensions, a Chinese economic slowdown, and oil prices/conflict in Iran. Market gains from here will be built on the back of these risks further receding and the maintenance of global economic growth. We have more confidence in the latt...

The effect of high oil prices on the financial markets is not clear, as there is evidence to support both a benign and more worrying view. In general, investors will start to discount a worse economic environment if we sustain significant future price increases, but the current level of global oil prices should not be a deal-killer for growth or ri...

While the market rally in 2012 has been most supportive for directional trading and especially for emerging market managers, we remain only cautiously optimistic on these strategies since markets may soon be due for a correction. Given the prevailing uncertainties with regard to the economic outlook, we continue to prefer tactical trading strategie...

Emerging market stocks have historically provided differentiated performance compared to other important asset classes. Along with providing the impetus for growth in a long-term portfolio, including emerging market stocks as part of an asset mix may help improve the risk-reward ratio of a portfolio because of its inherent diversification benefits.