Concerns about excess government debt and inflation have increased interest in gold and raised its price. Gold is a commodity that behaves more like a currency, providing no investment return beyond price fluctuation. Gold's high price undermines its protective characteristics, making it more vulnerable to declines as monetary policy normalizes.
This press release reports on the pre-crisis boom for some of the world's leading private banks whose asset growth was driven by net new money and the seemingly inexorable rise of global equity markets.
We believe that the problems associated with government indebtedness are more serious than on previous occasions when government debt was at similar levels because of poor demographics; the extent of private sector leverage; the global nature of the recession; independent central banks and the absence of capital controls, which make it more difficu...
In the fourth such report in conjunction with the EIU, Barclays examine the true value of wealth and the choices wealthy individuals make in seeking to enjoy it. The report also considers how luxury brands are responding to the changing requirements and expectations of an ever expanding customer base for whom time in particular is becoming an incre...
This paper tackles 3 key questions in relation to UHNWIs: What is the economic contribution of Non Doms to the UK? How likely are they to respond negatively to tax reform, and what are their options; Finally, how fair is it for the rest of society that ultra high net worths don't pay their fair share of tax, and yet they benefit from the privilege...
This latest report in the Barclays Wealth Insights series, 'Evolving Fortunes', builds on the findings of earlier research with an in-depth analysis of how the global distribution of household wealth is likely to change during the next decade.
U.S. interest rates are unlikely to spike at the end of QE2 because the market has already priced in the completion of Fed purchases, but moves toward fiscal consolidation in Europe are likely to damp economic growth. Policymakers need to proceed cautiously with normalization as they have little ammunition left to battle renewed weakness in aggrega...
Developments in the European Monetary Union and the United States have raised new questions about whether political systems can deliver timely solutions to medium-term fiscal imbalances. However, the authors do not believe these imbalances will derail the global recovery, lead to problematic inflation, or prevent companies from making money.
It may be difficult for consumers to sustain current spending levels given the sticker shock of prices at the pump. Add to the mix a move higher in interest rates, cuts in unemployment benefits and other services, and a restructuring of the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid system as we know it, and it would seem the downside risks to growth ar...
We expect 2011 growth will fall into the lower end of the 3.25% to 3.75% range. Pockets of economic weakness are likely to persist – in unemployment, housing and consumer confidence – but the general economic climate is far healthier than was the case a year ago. Political and geo-political issues, we believe, are the most significant threats to co...
The short-term uncertainty in the financial markets is likely to rise, and investors will likely be looking to raise liquidity, especially given the continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and the trade deficit hiccup in China. That said, we do not expect the engine of global growth to stall anytime soon. We would view weaknesses in t...
Corporate profits for firms in the S&P 500 have marched upward for six straight quarters from early 2009. Indeed, with the reports almost all in for the fourth quarter of 2010, corporate profits advanced 38% from the prior year. With this growth in earnings, we believe the value of equities remains attractive at 13.6 times forward estimated earning...
When the Fed ceases its massive buy program in July, it will be a de facto increase in interest rates. Who is going to step in and fill the void? The conclusion of QE2 is a well known fact, but are the consequences well understood and is this the only market dynamic that will push rates higher?
Internal conflicts in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Libya have increased political risk and negative economic costs, warranting downgrades in sovereign debt ratings and continuing negative outlooks. But political change could ultimately be positive since governments with greater legitimacy tend to be more resilient to economic and other shocks.
Inflation in emerging economies will remain a concern in the near term but could peak much sooner than expected as tighter monetary policies take hold. The rise in input costs around the globe could potentially impact profit margins; however, low wage growth, positive operating leverage and modest pricing power likely will buffer the downside in mo...