The world continues to work through a long-term structural shift of economic and political influence to a group of emerging economies, most notably China and India, while the developed world fights the hangover of more than a decade of excessive spending and debt accumulation. These long-term structural changes should drive patterns of economic gro...
While some people are crying out that the U.S. economy is dead or dying, the economy itself seems to be protesting otherwise. Look for continued slow but steady growth in the United States and globally, with commodity prices stabilizing and Japanese supply chain worries easing. But policy and market action are needed to restore investors' confidenc...
This summary report of the second quarter provides a high-level view of global economic data as well as global and U.S. economic trends. In addition, it examines individual market segments, including U.S. fixed income, U.S. equity, global equity, international equity, hedge funds, private equity, and real assets.
The debt issues faced by the developed world, macro imbalances, and the unpredictability of global policy actions make this an especially uncertain environment. However, the Fed continues to make low-risk assets very unappealing. Overall, global equities appear reasonably priced in light of the paltry real returns on bonds.
The U.S. economy lacks clear drivers of sustained growth, and there is no "quick fix" for the housing and structurally high unemployment situations. While there is much debate about what the federal government can and cannot do to change this dynamic, it is hard to see any real solution other than a gradual, often volatile recovery pattern over sev...
The hedge fund industry is reinventing business models and best practices to address regulatory changes and investor demands for enhanced fund transparency, liquidity, and efficiency. Investors, fund managers, and regulators are looking to third-party administrators to provide objective risk assessment and reporting.
The authors examine a range of topics, including the narrowing gap between returns on different asset classes, signs of the coming economic upturn, the strategy of alternating between risk-on and risk-off modes, inflation and economic crises around the world, performance of specific asset classes, and innovation as China's next growth driver.
To achieve lower borrowing costs and longer payment schedules for bond-issuing eurozone countries, bond alchemists (or policymakers) must ensure that the banks holding periphery bonds don't suffer significant losses, that the issuing countries can return to the markets, and that investors are confident the countries won't default.
Articles in this publication consider the impact of long-term debt reduction on the economy and investments, a less taxing way to own hedge funds, whether equities have reached the end of an era, the interplay of the end of QE2 and municipal bonds, and assurance that we are far from having the decline of the dollar be a policy concern.
Investors buy gold out of fear that the economic and political infrastructure we count on when we buy stocks and bonds is degrading. And gold booms inevitably end with a bust. The better strategy may be to build a reasonably sized position in diversified commodities, including gold; play close attention to sound entry points; and rebalance religiou...
This report by the World Economic Forum looks at the strategic importance of long-term investing for financial stability and the role of wealthy families as long-term investors alongside institutional actors such as sovereign wealth funds, endowment foundations, pension funds, and other entities.
The consolidation phase for equities appears to be reaching an end, causing Credit Suisse to reverse part of a tactical downgrade from February and take equities to 2 percent overweight on a one- to three-month basis. That rate would be increased if the markets fell further or the outlook for China became clearer.
Concerns about excess government debt and inflation have increased interest in gold and raised its price. Gold is a commodity that behaves more like a currency, providing no investment return beyond price fluctuation. Gold's high price undermines its protective characteristics, making it more vulnerable to declines as monetary policy normalizes.
This press release reports on the pre-crisis boom for some of the world's leading private banks whose asset growth was driven by net new money and the seemingly inexorable rise of global equity markets.
We believe that the problems associated with government indebtedness are more serious than on previous occasions when government debt was at similar levels because of poor demographics; the extent of private sector leverage; the global nature of the recession; independent central banks and the absence of capital controls, which make it more difficu...