Modern portfolio theory, while highly useful in illustrating the relative tradeoffs between current and prospective portfolio allocations, should not be used as the primary framework for constructing portfolios for wealthy families. Investors are better served, the authors say, by a goals-based approach that recognizes multiple levels of risk toler...
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Since 2008, commodities have been highly correlated with equities and other risk assets. As a result, many investors have begun to question whether the diversification benefit of investing in commodities has evaporated. A new report, however, finds that the recent spike in correlation is very much in line with the historical pattern around large ma...
The author discusses the re-emergence of domestic energy production, illustrates the evolving opportunities and risks brought about by this re-emergence for the United States and briefly touches on potential investment opportunities. This paper has a particular focus on natural gas, the most significant source of domestic energy.
Rental growth is likely to slow in many markets. However, low vacancies and limited construction pipelines as well as the fairly robust global economy should limit any downside in most cities. Regionally, we believe direct commercial real estate in Australia, China, Germany, France, Canada and selected U.S. and Latin American markets should outperf...
While the market rally in 2012 has been most supportive for directional trading and especially for emerging market managers, we remain only cautiously optimistic on these strategies since markets may soon be due for a correction. Given the prevailing uncertainties with regard to the economic outlook, we continue to prefer tactical trading strategie...
Emerging market stocks have historically provided differentiated performance compared to other important asset classes. Along with providing the impetus for growth in a long-term portfolio, including emerging market stocks as part of an asset mix may help improve the risk-reward ratio of a portfolio because of its inherent diversification benefits.
We do not dispute the consensus view that growth may remain sluggish in the United States in the near term. However, that does not imply that equities and credit investments are dead money. Equity investors have often prospered during blasé periods of economic growth.
International developed equities, mostly European, are trading below their 75th percentile and have occasionally flirted with their 90th percentile level in the past year. Such discounts can lead to relatively strong future returns but can require a good amount of patience.
The recent Facebook IPO announcement has had a positive impact on sentiment. Perhaps that sentiment will catch on in Europe. However, it seems that gloom still weighs heavier there than here. Private equity firms will most likely continue to wait for the right time to exit companies, and if the equity markets are as volatile this year as they were ...
The authors examine the current banking environment and opine on pricing and other trends that should lead to an unprecedented level of bank transactions during the next several years. They discuss the factors that should create the need and opportunity as well as present the challenges that have slowed substantial consolidation activity.
Whether a family office wants a global custodian to be the sole asset servicer or the gatekeeper of data from aggregators and brokers, the role of a global custodian goes far beyond safekeeping. This paper makes the case for global custodians, pointing out their strengths in risk management, operational efficiency, accuracy and access to data, and ...
Analysis shows alternative strategies and funds are far from equal in the diversification benefits they provide. Investors who want to use alternatives to reduce portfolio risk are wise to explore the performance characteristics of individual funds as well as consider how they are likely to perform under varying conditions.
Although another round of quantitative easing now looks less imminent given the recent economic strength, investors still expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to come to their rescue with QE3 should economic growth falter. However, the flexibility for QE3 becomes more limited if crude oil and gasoline prices continue to escalate into the su...
While the stress has not been completely removed from the system, today’s housing prices provide a meaningful opportunity for the patient investor. Median home prices have historically exhibited a strong relationship with median household income. Although this relationship became quite stretched during the real estate bubble, it has since reverted ...
We continue to favor high income strategies in an environment where traditional bond yields are extremely low and dividend payouts are generally stingy. U.S. equity markets are fairly valued. Internationally, emerging market equities and debt have been strong performers in 2012 and have further long-term upside. We remain on the sidelines in Europe...