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Looking at the data and macro trends, the quantitative insights suggest the conditions underpinning more than a decade of non-U.S. equity underperformance may be starting to shift. The three drivers behind it are (1) tariffs are weighing on U.S. household income and may curb consumption; (2) fiscal and economic policy abroad is becoming more proactive; and (3) macro conditions are reshaping relative growth prospects. As growth differentials narrow, there are compelling valuations—and potential capital flows—outside the United States.

Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued. As a result, the time may be the right for an allocation to frontier markets debt through a dedicated strategy. In this paper, we take a closer look at both the potential benefits a frontier debt portfolio can add to an investor’s portfolio, discuss our investment process, and explain how the risks inherent in this asset class can be handled.

Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025, and the 2024 U.S. election introduced a new layer of uncertainty. While EMs present a landscape of opportunity amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds, investors should be prepared for uneven outcomes across regions.

As an asset class, the frontier markets present unique opportunities and a diversification that is not very correlated with other risk asset classes such as equity. In this video, learn from William Blair & Company on why there is potential value in investing in frontier markets, both on a standalone basis or as part of a more diverse portfolio.

Rising global rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and tightening liquidity conditions have weighed on sentiment in emerging markets (EMs). But EMs may be regaining their footing as easier monetary conditions could drive growth in 2024 for both equities and debt alike. Any recovery, however, is unlikely to be uniform. As a new cycle unfolds, we expect the heterogeneous dynamics and secular trends that drove performance in 2023 to continue to shape market terrain in 2024.