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The past year has ended up being far more resilient to many of the prevailing economic headwinds than we had feared it might be. The shifting consumption patterns, structurally tight labor market, and strong private sector balance sheets with debt that has been locked in at low rates have helped boost consumption and moderate inflationary pressures. As “the year of testing resiliency” came to a close, many may have wondered what to expect in 2025. In this Economic Outlook, Macro Analyst Richard de Chazal sees U.S.

Invoking emergency powers due to the stated “threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs,” President Trump implemented a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and—perhaps most surprisingly—a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (except for Canadian energy imports that receive a 10% tariff). These tariffs are sending shockwaves through financial markets both in North America and around the globe as investors reevaluate their portfolio positioning and investment strategies. In the short-term, risks are heightened.

With the return of the Trump administration, observers expect meaningful changes in political direction and economic and tax policy, but specifics and timing are unknown. Given the degree of uncertainty, investors should remain diversified and focus on both risk and liquidity management. Within private equity, deals that emphasize operational improvement may be better positioned than those focuses on leverage and financial engineering. As the Trump agenda takes shape, a thoughtful balance of caution and opportunism will be key.

The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.

In a month when couples are known to come together to engage in lavish displays of affection, the new U.S. President did the opposite. On February 2nd, he signed a executive order levying steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The announcement sent shock waves around the world and roiled financial markets. The next round of tariffs could be significantly higher. The problem is that the economic research on protectionism, of which tariffs are a key aspect, reveals that the costs outweigh the benefits.

Slowing population growth is a global phenomenon. From this research report, learn how to establish a framework by which to understand the dynamics between demographics and economics, along with the likely effect on economic growth and financial markets in the coming decades.

By assessing the impact of global warming and the transition to “net zero” on the economy, this paper focuses on three dimensions: the direct physical impact of higher temperatures, the effect of stricter environmental policies, and the boost from greater “green investment” to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. While the physical impact of climate change on the economy increases as temperatures rise, the impact will vary across regions.

The year 2024 is now in the history books, marking three notable market highlights: a very good year for U.S., the AI gold rush broadening to other industries and sectors, and a surprisingly tough year for U.S. bonds. Looking ahead to what’s next in 2025, Chief Investment Officer Pete Chiappinelli of Ballentine Partners sees thirteen areas for investors to keep in mind—and it starts with the resilient strength of the U.S. economy.

Amid evolving global dynamics, emerging market corporate debt offers ample and compelling investable opportunities. The diversity of the asset class gives investors a wide spectrum on which to effectuate their views and investment strategies. But investors should navigate with caution and take note of the five themes that will have a notable impact on the asset class: net supply, U.S. policies, crude oil, the trajectory of interest rates and impact on financing costs, and improved default rates.