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By most measures, the start of the first quarter of 2025 painted a picture of positive economic momentum and optimism in the U.S. Growth remained solid. Unemployment hovered near 60-year lows. Real wages were rising. Corporate earnings were on track for double-digit growth. And then it turned from optimism to uncertainty to sheer panic with the Trump administration surprising markets with a sweeping set of tariffs. By quarter’s end, the tariffs have ignited fears of global trade war, surging inflation, and a material growth slowdown.

Given the impact of the back-and-forth tariffs and the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the risks of creating a bout of inflation or a bout of economic slowdown (or both) are very real. The uncertainty, market gyrations, and indications of a double-digit market correction at some point during 2025 are also creating tremendous angst. Instead of trying to dodge any market volatility and drawdowns, investors should stay the course. There are mitigating factors to the headwinds of the tariffs and DOGE. There will eventually be clarity.

2025 stands at a crossroads. In the prior year, nearly half of the world’s population across more than 70 countries participated in national elections, artificial intelligence gained considerable traction in the marketplace, and several banks initiated a synchronized interest rate-cutting cycle. Each of these developments alone creates a complex landscape to navigate. Yet, the situation is further complicated by heightened geopolitical risks and an investment environment brimming with uncertainties.

Invoking emergency powers due to the stated “threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs,” President Trump implemented a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and—perhaps most surprisingly—a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (except for Canadian energy imports that receive a 10% tariff). These tariffs are sending shockwaves through financial markets both in North America and around the globe as investors reevaluate their portfolio positioning and investment strategies. In the short-term, risks are heightened.

The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.

The good fortune of high productivity growth and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. A key risk to the U.S. outlook is the potential waning of the positive supply-side factors, though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth as the era of sound money lives on.

The expectations of an economic soft landing and favorable equity market in both 2023 and 2024 were possible due to the positive underpinnings of a healthy labor market, falling inflation, and a Fed pivot to rate cutting. In 2025, however, expectations are higher, policy shifts are underway, and several new factors that include tariffs, trade wars, budget deficits, long-term interest rates, and stock market valuation are primed to collide.

Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025, and the 2024 U.S. election introduced a new layer of uncertainty. While EMs present a landscape of opportunity amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds, investors should be prepared for uneven outcomes across regions.