Financial markets were exceptionally strong in the first quarter of 2019. Nearly all major asset classes posted returns so positive that they virtually wiped out losses from the difficult fourth quarter of 2018. But will that kind of return be it for 2019?
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Financial markets look more buoyant than in the closing weeks of 2018. High levels of market volatility have been tamed by central bank moderation, with equity indices having had a roaring start of the year. However, looking beyond immediate market sentiment, how much has really changed? The six key investment themes at the start of the year provide a good structure for answering the question. They may also suggest how far markets could go in the future.
Qualified Opportunity Zones (QOZ) offer taxable investors the potential for deferral of existing gains and tax-free growth. Though the basic provisions of the tax incentive are known, the rules remain unclear and regulatory risks persist. While the existence of a tax incentive can make a good investment even better, investment decisions should not be primarily driven by tax considerations.
Discussions between the U.S. and China regarding trade and tariff issues remain fluid. Markets are increasingly optimistic that an agreement between the two countries can help restore globalization trends, but protectionism could still weigh on growth. In Europe, the economy continues to report signs of weakness. In the U.S., labor conditions remain robust, with 3.8% unemployment rate. Sentiment indicators have been mixed, and surveys of corporate CFO priorities show a shift into more defensive strategies (away from expansion).
It has been a great start to 2019 in the marketplace, beginning with impact investors making strong returns. Next, notable companies are being acquired or completing IPOs. Opportunity Zones are a hot topic, and many investors have been asking about an OZ fund.
There is a lot to like in the Consumer Discretionary sector, particularly for investors in search of companies with significant growth opportunities and sustainable competitive advantages. With millennials currently representing over a quarter of the U.S. population, their tendencies will have a growing influence on equity markets and play an increasingly large role in the performance of consumer stocks over time.
Private markets investments remain poised to play an increasingly important role in the portfolios of individual and family investors seeking the compelling long-term outperformance and diversification characteristics of the asset class. Understanding the basics of private markets investments and their construction is the first step toward the successful implementation within an existing portfolio.
Global investors need to have an open mind. At any given time, many countries and markets around the world may appear to be rife with risks and problems, and yet in many cases, these countries may also offer sources of return that may not be evident at first glance. The best global managers are the ones that probe below the surface and find those sources of return.
There is not a lot of data to call upon to glean the performance of direct private investments; however, based on a large, robust study focused on institutional investors, family offices should know that the performance of this type of investing has been mixed at best. In this paper, the second in a three-part series, we examine the peformance of direct investments relative to both private fund structures and the public markets.