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At a time when optimism for growth has been on the rise, artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies are high on the private investment priorities. Taking a closer look, this KPMG report explores the evolving landscape of private company investments, highlighting drivers such as financial performance, technological advancements, and rigorous governance practices.

Looking at the data and macro trends, the quantitative insights suggest the conditions underpinning more than a decade of non-U.S. equity underperformance may be starting to shift. The three drivers behind it are (1) tariffs are weighing on U.S. household income and may curb consumption; (2) fiscal and economic policy abroad is becoming more proactive; and (3) macro conditions are reshaping relative growth prospects. As growth differentials narrow, there are compelling valuations—and potential capital flows—outside the United States.

As with any technology, change happens gradually, not overnight. And GenAI is no different. While it may seem to many that the AI enterprise adoption is at a standstill because the financial benefit is not yet evident, important steps are happening behind the scenes that are setting the stage for broader scale adoption and monetization in the not-too-distant future. In this report, we address the common questions about the generative AI theme.

By most measures, the start of the first quarter of 2025 painted a picture of positive economic momentum and optimism in the U.S. Growth remained solid. Unemployment hovered near 60-year lows. Real wages were rising. Corporate earnings were on track for double-digit growth. And then it turned from optimism to uncertainty to sheer panic with the Trump administration surprising markets with a sweeping set of tariffs. By quarter’s end, the tariffs have ignited fears of global trade war, surging inflation, and a material growth slowdown.

Given the impact of the back-and-forth tariffs and the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the risks of creating a bout of inflation or a bout of economic slowdown (or both) are very real. The uncertainty, market gyrations, and indications of a double-digit market correction at some point during 2025 are also creating tremendous angst. Instead of trying to dodge any market volatility and drawdowns, investors should stay the course. There are mitigating factors to the headwinds of the tariffs and DOGE. There will eventually be clarity.

2025 stands at a crossroads. In the prior year, nearly half of the world’s population across more than 70 countries participated in national elections, artificial intelligence gained considerable traction in the marketplace, and several banks initiated a synchronized interest rate-cutting cycle. Each of these developments alone creates a complex landscape to navigate. Yet, the situation is further complicated by heightened geopolitical risks and an investment environment brimming with uncertainties.

Invoking emergency powers due to the stated “threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs,” President Trump implemented a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and—perhaps most surprisingly—a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (except for Canadian energy imports that receive a 10% tariff). These tariffs are sending shockwaves through financial markets both in North America and around the globe as investors reevaluate their portfolio positioning and investment strategies. In the short-term, risks are heightened.

The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.

The good fortune of high productivity growth and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. A key risk to the U.S. outlook is the potential waning of the positive supply-side factors, though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth as the era of sound money lives on.