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Since 1986, Byron R. Wein gave his views on a number of economic, financial, and political surprises for the coming year. By “surprise,” Byron defined it as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chances of taking place but which he believed had a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Paying homage to Byron’s annual “10 Surprises” in this video, NEPC’s Phillip Nelson and Tim McCusker discuss their own predictions for 2024—their five market themes for 2024: cost of capital, magnificent 7, U.S. fiscal debt, artificial intelligence, and geopolitics.

The uneven historic GDP growth, deflation, and low corporate productivity have made Japan a tough market for investors. But given the strong performance in 2023, the Japanese market is changing. Starting with Abenomics more than a decade ago and the more recent initiatives by Japanese stock exchanges, the tangible changes in Japan are attracting investors once again.

As private equity (PE) fund managers and portfolio companies look ahead in 2024, they anticipate a changing exit landscape, hurdles in meeting their investment theses, and ongoing talent obstacles. To meet the inevitable dealmaking challenges (and opportunities), there are 5 PE trends to keep in mind: (1) the ramifications of the U.S.

Seasoned investors know that you cannot predict the future of the markets. But smart private wealth managers know that the key to preserving and growing wealth is to anticipate critical trends that are likely to have a lasting impact. Where trends are concerned, 2024 has a lot brewing around the geopolitical conflicts, the explosion of artificial intelligence, the use of alternative investments as portfolio management tools, and the generational transitions that are coming to the family office.

Rising global rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and tightening liquidity conditions have weighed on sentiment in emerging markets (EMs). But EMs may be regaining their footing as easier monetary conditions could drive growth in 2024 for both equities and debt alike. Any recovery, however, is unlikely to be uniform. As a new cycle unfolds, we expect the heterogeneous dynamics and secular trends that drove performance in 2023 to continue to shape market terrain in 2024.

Sound money is the result when interest rates are above the rate of inflation, a development that is expected to persist in the years ahead. In the meantime, the transition to a higher interest rate environment has no doubt challenged investors, who have endured historical losses in bonds and high volatility in stocks. But make no mistake: This structural shift is the single best economic and financial development in the last 20 years. Looking forward and as shown in this report, investors will benefit from a return to sound money.

Several years on from the pandemic, the global economy is still wrestling with the repercussions. While investors will hope for the best in 2024, macro analyst Richard de Chazal examines the resiliency of the markets against a crowded backdrop of Fed policy uncertainty, inflation, bond market and economic dynamics, and other factors each of which will test the limits of the market’s endurance.

The global economy faced a high degree of difficulty in 2023, but it earned high marks with continued growth, labor markets remaining strong, and declining inflation amid the ongoing expansion. The soft-landing narrative has considerable allure, but the three-year-old expansion is vulnerable. Higher interest rates are exacting an increasing toll, and the cycle has been challenged by an unsettling series of unfortunate events. In this special report, the Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates in the year ahead.