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Rising global rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and tightening liquidity conditions have weighed on sentiment in emerging markets (EMs). But EMs may be regaining their footing as easier monetary conditions could drive growth in 2024 for both equities and debt alike. Any recovery, however, is unlikely to be uniform. As a new cycle unfolds, we expect the heterogeneous dynamics and secular trends that drove performance in 2023 to continue to shape market terrain in 2024.

Sound money is the result when interest rates are above the rate of inflation, a development that is expected to persist in the years ahead. In the meantime, the transition to a higher interest rate environment has no doubt challenged investors, who have endured historical losses in bonds and high volatility in stocks. But make no mistake: This structural shift is the single best economic and financial development in the last 20 years. Looking forward and as shown in this report, investors will benefit from a return to sound money.

Several years on from the pandemic, the global economy is still wrestling with the repercussions. While investors will hope for the best in 2024, macro analyst Richard de Chazal examines the resiliency of the markets against a crowded backdrop of Fed policy uncertainty, inflation, bond market and economic dynamics, and other factors each of which will test the limits of the market’s endurance.

The global economy faced a high degree of difficulty in 2023, but it earned high marks with continued growth, labor markets remaining strong, and declining inflation amid the ongoing expansion. The soft-landing narrative has considerable allure, but the three-year-old expansion is vulnerable. Higher interest rates are exacting an increasing toll, and the cycle has been challenged by an unsettling series of unfortunate events. In this special report, the Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates in the year ahead.

Investors have been looking for a recession amidst rising interest rates and expectations for slowing growth, but continued growth in much of the economy and resilient investment performance in 2023 has made for a very murky economic puzzle going forward. Exogenous factors such as geopolitical instability, deglobalization, and continuing risk of a U.S. government shutdown add complicating risk factors to the economic outlook.

President Joe Biden’s executive order targeting U.S. investments in certain industries in China has raised questions about its impact on global markets and investment portfolios. In examining its potential effects, NEPC’s Senior Investment Director, Jennifer Appel, shares her insights on what the executive order means for investors. She also provides perspectives on Chinese private markets, China’s debt levels, the high unemployment rate and uncertain economy, and the long-term views on investing in China.

Private equity faces a crossroads. Looking at a challenging economy, the industry plans to turn its attention inward to current portfolio companies. From this 2023 BDO Private Capital Survey Report, learn where the private equity industry plans to invest capital and create value; how larger and smaller funds are deploying capital differently; how portfolio companies are experiencing staffing shortages and leadership skill gaps; how organic value creation is taking center stage; and how fund managers are changing their perspectives on viable exit paths.