While high yield spreads are likely to remain volatile until Europe's problems are resolved, the purge of high leveraged credits during 2008 and 2009, coupled with a lack of aggressive re-leveraging of balance sheets thereafter, should limit the severity of the next default wave absent a severe recession or systemic bank failure in Europe.
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While things may very well turn out well for risky assets in the coming months, the possibility of a messy European outcome or for further political and economic turmoil in the U.S. is significant and cannot be ignored. Emerging economies, while not immune to the travails of Europe, Japan and the U.S., remain resilient and their stock markets offer good value and growth prospects.
Local currency emerging market debt funds have enjoyed robust asset growth in recent years as the investable universe has expanded and liquidity has sharply improved. This growing asset class provides diversification benefits and an attractive risk/reward profile for fixed-income and multi-asset portfolios.
Investment portfolios with diversified allocations exhibit beta spikes, which are commonly believed to be the result of increased portfolio correlation to U.S. equity. However, the fundamental mechanism driving beta to stress levels is the portfolio volatility ratio relative to equities, rather than the portfolio correlation itself.
The state of corporate profits, balance sheets and valuations make the author confident that 2011 is a much healthier environment for U.S. equities than 2008. Despite the emotional trauma investors experience in these types of markets, the silver lining is that the capital markets are forcing policymakers to confront the core issues.
When domestic safe-haven markets no longer seem to provide comfort, investors may want to consider diversifying by adopting a global approach to fixed income and currencies. Desirable countries to consider are those with better credit quality where higher official rates are already priced in and the currency has the potential to rally.
This is an environment that will see policy mistakes and prompt many questions and likely new fears. But it is one strong enough to produce the cash flows the world needs to fund the pay-down of long-term debt as well as long-term investors' strategic investment management plans.
The authors examine a range of topics, including the narrowing gap between returns on different asset classes, signs of the coming economic upturn, the strategy of alternating between risk-on and risk-off modes, inflation and economic crises around the world, performance of specific asset classes, and innovation as China's next growth driver.
It will take years for state and local governments to return to pre-recession fiscal health. And yet, despite ongoing struggles, financial risks appear to be stabilizing. The mechanisms that state and city issuers have in place – particularly the balanced budget requirement, powers of taxation, and independent treasury management – are working as intended.
Goals-based wealth allocation sets forth the premise that upward mobility is unlikely without the assumption of idiosyncratic risk. And wealth mobility, as defined by keeping up with one's wealth segment, requires structuring a portfolio within three dimensions of risk: personal, market and aspirational.