With the U.S. elections front and center in the minds of most investors around the world, we focus this edition of Global Foresight on the potential outcomes of the November 8, 2016 vote and discuss how the elections could impact the composition of the Supreme Court, legislative priorities for the next Congress and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Resource Search
What They Don't Teach You at Harvard Business School was a New York Times best-seller that highlighted ingredients to success absent from America’s business schools. In today’s negative interest rate environment, there may be an even more important consideration for business school grads—to consciously forget much of what was taught in business school. This paper identifies several investing concepts broadly taught across the nation and preached on Wall Street.
For eight years the Federal Reserve Bank has held interest rates abnormally low. The Fed's dual mandate of moderating unemployment and inflation seems to have morphed instead into keeping stock prices high. That has helped Wall Street tremendously but has punished the average person saving for retirement. What we need now is economic growth, and fiscal and monetary changes from Washington, D.C. to reverse the low return environment.
In this quarterly investment insights report—“The Economic Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde”—is an examination of the uncertainty in the financial markets. It identifies and delves into key themes for investing in the current environment. The main concerns for investors revolve around the rising U.S. dollar, monetary policy changes and the probable introduction of fiscal stimulus, and the path of earnings. Deciphering these themes will be important to investors, and only time will tell how they play out.
The earth faces a tremendous challenge when it comes to water due to the supply and demand imbalance, the lack of substitutes, and the United Nation’s declaration that drinking water and sanitation are a human right. Investors are also increasingly focused on water-related challenges, recognizing the market’s potential to provide solutions for this expanding global problem while generating competitive financial returns.
This webinar and presentation provides an overview of where we are today and views from the investment management industry on the impact of the election across the US, developed and emerging markets.
The combination of improving economic data, stronger corporate earnings, and, particularly, potential policies from the Trump administration has created a heady brew for domestic equity markets. Even stocks abroad are posting robust returns. While President Trump’s plans for infrastructure spending, tax cuts, deregulation, and generally growth-focused policies are a key factor in the current U.S. stock rally, these policies are also a main source of uncertainty, and therefore risk, for investors.
Political events in 2016 gave rise to increasing nationalism and populism globally. Combined with a global slowdown in economic and trade growth, international integration may already have plateaued and could begin to reverse over the coming decade. Multinational organizations should prepare for potentially significant implications by carefully considering the political threats in the countries in which they operate.
The potential economic and development gains from gender equality are vast and well-documented—and yet they are currently being bypassed. This joint report with the United Nations Foundation explores the market potential of advancing gender equality. By investing in companies offering products and services that promote gender equality, investors can earn the “return on equality,” seizing profitable, under-tapped market opportunities. In fact, narrowing the global gender gap could add U.S. $12 trillion in annual gross domestic product.
Taking a closer look at the major market themes and strategic positioning for 2017, the view is slightly more optimistic than 2016, but includes many of the same themes that played out last year. Although there may only be a modest pickup in economic activity, equity markets should benefit from expectations of growth and strong corporate earnings. Given this backdrop, expect modest equity returns with developed economies outpacing emerging markets, interest rates to move modestly higher across the maturity curve, and bouts of volatility.