With last week’s historic election now behind us, investors are feverishly recalibrating their plans in light of its stunning outcome. The despair registered in the early hours after the polls closed on November 8 turned sharply into euphoria as investors focused on the “pro-growth” agenda of a Republican president and control of both congressional chambers. Since the election, those industry groups perceived as winners (e.g. banks, pharmaceutical companies, and industrials) have staged enormous rallies while other groups (e.g.
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If President-elect Trump fulfills many of his campaign promises, the impacts will be felt across the world. More will be known about these effects over the coming months and quarters, and for wealth managers the focus will be on the potential short and long-term impacts on their clients’ financial well-being. Markets hate uncertainty and the uncertainty created by a President Trump triggered a “sell first/ask questions later” response in financial markets. There will undoubtedly be both winners and losers in the financial markets.
Investors now have more than $3 trillion invested in hedge funds, up from $1 trillion in 2005. This steep increase in assets under management means the hedge fund industry confronts a more scrupulous regulatory environment, heightened investor demands for transparency and tighter standards for all aspects of fund governance, like performance reporting and offshore fund structuring.
Women have become financial powerhouses and have taken on an increasing role in managing wealth to the tune of $11.2 trillion. Some estimate that by 2030, women will control as much as two-thirds of the nation’s wealth. This change makes one thing clear—whether women are wealth creators, inheritors, or owners through marriage, they need to take responsibility for preserving, enhancing, and ultimately, transferring their assets.
While the public sentiment remains focused on high valuations, research shows the news cycle is focusing on hype and the fear that venture capital is in another bubble. When evaluating the health of the venture market, internal data shows that revenue multiples have been declining since 2012 for a majority of the U.S. venture-backed technology companies with revenues under $100M. The phenomenon can be attributed to young companies growing revenues earlier than before, with revenue growth rates outpacing valuation growth rates.
The venture ecosystem in Israel is undergoing an evolution as entrepreneurs are flourishing throughout the country. In November 2015 there were 6,000 start-ups in Israel garnering funding from a new generation of venture funds made up of both spin-outs from existing firms and new VCs. The combination of a vibrant culture of entrepreneurship, support of the government, strong university, multi-national corporations, and existence of venture capital and liquidity has made many bullish on Israel.
Many investors are analyzing how the recent volatility may impact both their public and private holdings. When comparing the S&P 500's performance over the past 32 years with the Cambridge Associates’ median venture capital returns over the same period, you will find an inverse correlation between the two of 28%, implying that as the public markets increase, venture returns for those vintage years decrease. Ultimately, market volatility and the correlated lowering of public valuations can create opportunities for the venture partners.
In the last decade, multinational organizations have undertaken unprecedented international expansion, leaving them exposed to an expanding array of global credit and political risks. And those risks—including terrorism and political violence, armed conflicts, increasingly powerful anti-establishment political movements, the threat of global recession, and persistently low commodity prices—continue to grow. Multinational companies and foreign investors must now be prepared for virtually any type of political or economic risk threat in developed and emerging markets.
Despite modest recoveries across most markets in the fourth quarter, 2015 was a poor year for investment returns. While concerns at the end of 2015 continue now—volatility in China’s domestic Shanghai market, rising interest rates in the U.S., falling oil prices, the U.S. dollar’s strength—history has shown that markets often revert to above trend line returns after weak periods when underlying fundamentals remain positive. Looking ahead and past the oft-exaggerated media warnings of spreading financial distress, there is reason for cautious optimism.
The markets are off to a rough start this year. Worries about the strength of the world economy caused global stocks to plunge double-digits in January before rebounding slightly. Recent manufacturing data in the U.S. has underwhelmed, the European Commission reduced its Eurozone GDP forecast to just 1.7%, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how strong China’s economy will be this year. Despite the troubling headlines, there remain bright spots—low energy prices should stimulate U.S.