There were two distinct periods during the quarter divided by sentiment and performance. The start of the year through February 11 was a “risk-off” period of negative sentiment and sharp declines across asset classes and countries. Many assets had double-digit declines during the first half of the quarter. Sentiment shifted abruptly and most markets rallied starting February 12. Many major indices erased prior losses to post gains for the quarter.
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Prior to the Brexit vote on June 23, financial markets were relatively strong. The S&P 500 index was trading just under its all-time high and the British pound was at the highest level of the year. The day after the vote, markets reacted sharply with risk-assets dropping and safe haven assets rising. Oil, the S&P 500, and the FTSE Eurotop 100 fell 5 percent, 4 percent, and 6 percent respectively. Gold gained 4 percent. The sell-off lasted two days and equities regained much of the two-day declines by month-end.
For decades, families seeking advice on how to invest their hard-earned capital were forced to endure “beauty contests” where potential advisors attempted to demonstrate their supposedly-unique skills and/or access to information. More often than not, it seemed families would choose an advisor only to inevitably experience disappointment when their actual results didn’t uphold the promises made by the advisor.
The proverb “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” is pervasive across many cultures. Why is this the case and how can your family be exceptional in your quest to sustain your wealth? Observations from decades of working with families on this challenge provide seven insights on how families fail to sustain their wealth from generation to generation, and how you can learn from them.
In recent years the rise in prominence of smaller, typically seed stage focused venture funds has transformed the landscape of early stage investing. At the same time, mobile innovation has spawned new business models that in a short period of time can achieve great scale and reach. It becomes even more essential to have access to top venture capital firms, which can be hard, but understanding micro VCs track record may get you the same access to the top portfolio companies.
On November 8, 2016, millions of Americans will cast their votes for the next U.S. President. In considering how the new political environment in 2017 will impact the investment landscape, it’s important to keep in mind the words of legendary investor Benjamin Graham: “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Graham was warning investors to avoid focusing on a single-event outcome to the exclusion of other factors.
Chief Investment Officer David Donabedian recaps the first half of 2016 and provides an outlook for economic activity and financial markets in the third quarter of the year. The issues that will have the most impact on the financial markets over the next 12 months are:
For insights on integrated wealth planning, this issue of The Advisor presents a view from the top with Joe Kahn, The New York Times Managing Editor, the impact of globalization 2.0, and the U.S. presidential election 2016 and the candidates’ tax platforms. Also in this issue are the best practices in providing age-appropriate transparency when it comes to discussing a family’s wealth plan. Following it is the takeaway on the advantage of Delaware’s laws on directed trusts.
There is rarely any dissension over the assumption that future investment results are shaped by present-day conditions. Underpromising, or assuming future returns will fall below historic averages, may appear unduly pessimistic. Yet, adversity is best confronted when it is expected. With prudent expectations and some guidance, your investment portfolio can have a foundation to overdeliver when the pendulum changes course. Explore pockets of opportunity to take advantage of what the markets have to give in a modest return environment.
Change is in the wind. After a challenging 2015, the investment landscape for 2016 will be defined by a new course for monetary policy and political leadership, a new primary catalyst for stocks and an altered roadmap for credit markets, and for energy. Looking ahead at these asset classes—U.S. equities, international equities, fixed income, commodities, hedged strategies, and private markets—can provide a good sense of the investment outlook over the next twelve months.