Governments and individuals now have to deliver on the promises that they have made. In other words, the rhetoric of last year has to be translated into policy and investment reality. Investors may also have to get used to a world characterized not only by divergence, but also by a continued threat of disruption. We are living in a complex world but investors should not assume that events are so unpredictable as to be impossible to prepare for. Looking at the economic and political landscape, 10 key investment themes emerge for 2017.
Investment Management
Resource Search
Looking in the rear view mirror on the global markets—including the resurgence of populism, the Fed’s annual rate migration, and portfolio positioning—another up year is in the books for U.S. equities, with 2016 marking the eighth consecutive calendar year to have a positive total return on the S&P 500 Index. This time around the U.S. large capitalization index posted a resilient 11.95 percent total return with 2.41 percent coming from dividends and 9.5 percent from price appreciation.
President Trump was inaugurated into office last week amid rallies and protests lining the streets that continued into the weekend. In his first few days in office, Trump has already put forth executive orders to freeze new agency regulations, withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. These actions will have strong effects on production and trade for the U.S. on a worldwide scale. While the domestic growth forecast may be notably improving, investors are on standby to determine which campaign assurances will become reality.
After a sharp stock market rally that ensued immediately after Trump’s come-from behind victory, financial markets have moderated as the realities of governing in the real world have begun to sink in. Investors were initially enthused by Trump’s plans to cut corporate and personal income taxes, reduce business regulations, implement a $1 trillion infrastructure program, and negotiate trade deals more favorable to the United States. While supportive of the ideas, Republicans are wondering how all of this will be paid for.
Drive anywhere outside of a major metropolitan area, and you will find roads and bridges in need of serious repair. Talk to business owners, and they will tell you how the difficulty of moving goods from where they are produced to where they are sold hurts their margins. It is time to improve the aging infrastructure of the United States. Regardless of how policymakers decide to finance such a project, the multi-year infrastructure investment will boost economic growth, create jobs and provide a significant opportunity for middle market businesses.
Municipal bond investors may be concerned that periods of economic stress could result in states defaulting on their debt. This fear can be exacerbated by political rhetoric, by inflammatory reporting, or even by inherent suspicion of the efficacy of governments. Yet states have successfully managed through multiple economic contractions in the postwar era. As demonstrated in the past, most states will manage through this current recession using the tools available, making necessary if painful cuts in expenditures, and continuing to honor their obligations to their bondholders.
The tech industry was undergoing a period of introspection even before the COVID-19 pandemic began. While the crisis spotlighted the importance of the tech industry and existing technology, the future is still rooted in the core purpose of innovation with intent. The tech industry is poised for growth in 2021, and optimization is the path to realizing opportunity.
Custom separately managed accounts (SMAs) may seem to many like the newest in the line of innovations in the investment industry. However, the benefits of portfolio customization go far beyond security selection. At its core, it allows an investor’s portfolio to be managed consistent with their specific rules, exclusions, or tax situations. With efficiency and flexibility, SMAs can also adapt to the twists and turns of an investment journey.
COVID-19 is exacerbating ongoing geopolitical and societal challenges, and the existential crisis of climate change looms large. In this 16th edition of the Global Risks Report, it highlights the implications of major risks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and an emerging risk landscape spanning from the digital divide to navigating global fractures to considering strategic investments to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
Few investor concerns are as fundamental as portfolio performance. How to evaluate it is one of the most common questions posed by private wealth clients. It starts with the benchmarking process—the evaluation of investment decisions and their results. But to truly evaluate your portfolio, it pays to drill down deeper and focus on the three steps needed to determine which decisions have been successful and which need improvement.