The start of the year is always a good time to focus on personal improvements with resolutions. Sharing in the same spirit with an investment outlook in mind, there are ten temptations to resist in 2017, including resisting the macro and political developments, investing while looking through the rearview mirror, and sticking with a strategy designed to work only in a falling rate environment.
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Given the expectation for the U.S. economy to grow at a modest pace for the eighth year in a row, the risk of the U.S. economy or inflation becoming “overheated” in 2017 remains low. The Fed will likely move the federal funds rate higher twice in 2017, once in the first half and again late in the year. There are still important headwinds to consider, like a stronger dollar that will hamper trade for large multinational companies and continued geopolitical risk.
Enterprising families are showing an increased interest in participating in direct investments around the globe. Some families have turned to private equity out of frustration with the volatility in the public markets and the unexpected correlations between asset classes that occurred during the 2008-2010 timeframe. The factors that impact their private equity portfolios’ success are complex in nature, and there are 15 key considerations that inform families’ preferences for private investments, and, ultimately, impact how well they will do.
Although markets got off to a calmer start in 2017 than it did in 2016, this year may still be one of the most difficult years for long-term investors in recent memory. There is little basis on which to anticipate the policy actions of the new administration and there is substantial potential for large scale change. There will be opportunities to make money, but there will also be many red herrings. Investors, money managers, and wealth advisors will all be challenged to have discipline this year.
What do families tend to underestimate or overlook in the due diligence process? A single misstep in understanding the market the target business operates in, evaluating the sustainability of product line and customer level profitability, or assessing and motivating the management team, can wipe out a generation of wealth and reputation. Jason Abbott and Bill Clogg from FTI Consulting’s Transaction Services practice led a discussion on the most critical commercial, operational and financial due diligence steps involved in acquiring a business or property.
At the beginning of 2016 many growth markets were experiencing a drop in economic performance and weaker growth predictions, which led to several commentators and investors questioning the future role of these markets as leaders of global growth. In their view, the growth markets’ era was over. However, growth is now projected to return to certain developing markets by 2017—most notably Brazil, Nigeria and Russia.
This webinar gave an overview of how family offices have been “chasing Yale” in pursuit of double digit portfolio returns.
Many are nervous, curious, and even excited for the potential impact of the Trump administration on their portfolios and the economy. In this Hot Topic Webinar, Stephen Kolano of BNY Mellon Wealth Management led a discussion on some of the major events and highlights that set the stage for 2017, plus the key catalysts to watch for in the coming year. In addition, he dove into the policy and geopolitical issues affecting our industry, both domestically and globally, as well as investment implications and areas to consider regarding portfolio positioning.
Heading into 2017, the top five investment themes center around prolonged expansion, inflation rising, a new upward interest rate bias, going from global to local, and stock pickers being back in style. With all the dire headlines, it’s easy to forget that we are in the midst of the fourth longest expansion on record. Looming risks exist, namely the prospect of trade wars, rising debt and deficit and other geopolitical threats, but broadly speaking, this expansion environment is positive for equities and other risk assets.
As high-net-worth investors discuss plans for charitable giving and investing with their financial advisors, it is absolutely crucial for them to be on the same page in terms of the outcomes desired, both financially and philanthropically. For this reason, advisors and their clients need a set vocabulary of terms going into the first meeting. Only then can they discuss goals (and ways of achieving them) without stumbling over communication roadblocks.