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In a historic referendum, 51.9 percent of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) elected to leave the European Union (EU), catching global markets off guard. Reaction has been significant, with large currency moves, falling yields on perceived safe-haven government bonds, and large sell-offs in the equity markets. Within a day of the vote to leave the EU, the British pound sterling dropped over 6 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.56 percent, and global equities plunged 3 to 9 percent. The spillover effect to the U.S. economy will be minimal, but earnings of U.S.

Britons voted to exit the European Union on June 23, marking the first time any country has left since its formation. The political consequences for Britain’s Prime Minister were swift, and people around the globe reacted with shock and confusion. The economic and investment impact of this decision led to a rising U.S. dollar and falling GDP growth estimates, which will put downward pressure on S&P revenue growth in an environment where sales, margins and corporate profits are already challenged.

After the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU), the global markets shifted to a “risk-off,” with global stocks, the British pound, and the euro all declining while the U.S. dollar, gold, and high-quality U.S. bonds rallied.

Some investors may think that their investment portfolios aren’t “making the grade” because they started investing at a point in the market cycle that has resulted in meager gains or even short-term losses. In volatile environments, a certain discipline is required to stick to an investment plan and avoid the temptation to exit the market. It can be difficult to resist the flight instinct in the midst of negative headlines and geopolitical uncertainty, but staying invested positions investors to capture the next market upswing.

The idea that people generally prefer consuming goods and services today rather than at some point in the distant future is a basic tenet of economic theory. Based on this, savers usually require positive real interest rates to forsake current consumption and hand over their money. Of course, borrowers can only pay positive rates if their investments generate real positive earnings, usually on the back of a growing economy. At a real interest rate of zero, however, investments which do not foster growth may look attractive.

Our January 2016 commentary suggested “…we are in a transition period between central bank-induced liquidity and eventual normalization of markets. This transition period has been and will continue to be a bit choppy…”