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During uncertain times, it is easy to get caught up in the latest headlines proclaiming a possible U.S. recession. Although many variables such as growth in hourly earnings or high yield spreads over Treasury bonds have been shown to “predict” recessions in advance, the slope of the yield curve remains a powerful indicator of what lies ahead for the U.S. economy. Using history as a guide and active monitoring of leading indicators (including what the yield curve is signaling), the analysis shows the U.S. economy will grow at a modest but uneven pace.

As December’s difficult market conditions spilled over into 2016, the new year was greeted with worries about China’s economic slowdown, the US dollar, the Federal Reserve’s intentions for future interest rate increases, falling oil prices, and dampening global economic activity. Today the world’s capital markets are in a delicate place, and it’s too soon to be sure how the markets will sort themselves out. In times of uncertainty, it’s always best to stick with the fundamental truths of disciplined investing.

Making decisions that will affect future wealth is daunting under the best of circumstances. And these days can hardly be described as the best of times. Economies are in transition, US interest rates have begun to rise, China’s growth economy is slowing, and stock prices are more volatile than they have been in quite a while. In periods of uneasiness—with the short-term market pendulum swinging back and forth—historical data shows it’s time to place trust in equities to deliver the returns needed to reach long-term, investment goals.

Looking back on 2015, it was a disappointing year for investors with returns that were flat to negative, reflecting global market pressures that demand attention in 2016. The new year begins with a tricky liftoff around lowered market expectations and slightly more conservative positioning. Declines in corporate earnings, global growth, oil prices, and key economic metrics struck as reasons for increased caution (even as stocks rebounded in the fourth quarter).

There is nothing particularly magical about the start of a new calendar year, but it is a time to reassess the global economy and markets in search of investment opportunities. At the start of 2016 the outlook shows low recession and bear market risks, the U.S. poised to outperform but an inflection point is nearing. The opponents look equally strong, however, and tug-of-wars eventually come to an end. Until then, the investment outlook is one of relative opportunity and walking the tight line of balancing return opportunities and risks.

The economic outlook may be better than many think, with U.S. growth in 2016 likely remaining well above the long-term trend of 1.5 percent. The economy is expected to grow near 2.6 percent, with the household sector and residential investment being the two primary drivers. The recent Washington D.C. policymaker agreement, which resulted in a lifting of the debt ceiling, should add 0.2 percentage points to overall economic activity in 2016.

The real estate industry is going through an unprecedented phase of institutionalization as it formalizes processes, outsources noncore activities and takes proactive steps to managing increased regulatory oversight. This trends report for the coming New Year provides some surprising changes in the real estate private equity market. Some of the highlights include:· Fundraising is up and real estate investors are seeing opportunities in markets across the globe, including ones that have seen slowdown

Geopolitics aside, economic data outside the United States displayed modest improvement based on ‘flash’ purchasing manager surveys for Europe and Japan, which pointed to stronger activity, Quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have supported both economies, although recent signs of soft inflation may indicate both central banks should inject additional stimulus. This latest global economic commentary discusses a number of updates in equity, commodity and fixed income markets worldwide.

It is a common understanding that when investing in international assets, there are two sources of risk, first, the volatility that comes from the underlying asset itself (typically equities or bonds) and second, the volatility of the currency in which the international asset is denominated versus the base currency of the portfolio.

In March 2014, the Chinese Government announced the launch of its National New Urbanization Plan. The plan will transform China and will present opportunities in almost every sector—health care, entertainment, construction, energy, urban planning and many others. The New Urbanization Plan is a key part of the Government’s economic strategy, which seeks to rebalance the economy away from reliance on investment and exports and toward growth led by consumer spending.