Join us as we unravel the events that shaped capital markets in 2023 and gain insights into the landscape of 2024. From the lasting impacts of the pandemic to geopolitical shifts and technological breakthroughs, we'll navigate through key themes, discuss potential opportunities, and share strategic portfolio considerations. Timothy F. McCusker, FSA, CFA, CAIA, Partner, Chief Investment Officer, NEPC
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For most of the period from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 through the end of the COVID pandemic in 2022, the Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero. As post-pandemic inflation surged in early 2022, the Federal Reserve began a rapid rate-hike cycle that ended in July 2023 with the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. As noted in this Investment Report, the yields above 5% attracted investors to money market funds as total assets grew approximately 20% in 2023 to more than $6 trillion.
Investors are processing more data more rapidly than ever. For family offices, sticking to their principles and investing within a risk-adjusted framework has never been more important. With a greater number of opportunities, success will require families to reflect upon what has and has not worked, clarify the sectors or strategies where they have a differentiated, competitive advantage, and recognize more patience and thoughtful decision-making is required.
The uneven historic GDP growth, deflation, and low corporate productivity have made Japan a tough market for investors. But given the strong performance in 2023, the Japanese market is changing. Starting with Abenomics more than a decade ago and the more recent initiatives by Japanese stock exchanges, the tangible changes in Japan are attracting investors once again.
The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), designed to combat the use of shell companies for illicit purposes and increase ownership transparency in corporate structures, took effect on January 1, 2024. This update addresses how these CTA regulations will apply to corporate structures used in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions. In addition, in the M&A context, these regulations will mandate new processes for forming acquisition vehicles, additional filing requirements and considerations in due diligence, and changes to employment and operating agreements.
As private equity (PE) fund managers and portfolio companies look ahead in 2024, they anticipate a changing exit landscape, hurdles in meeting their investment theses, and ongoing talent obstacles. To meet the inevitable dealmaking challenges (and opportunities), there are 5 PE trends to keep in mind: (1) the ramifications of the U.S.
Seasoned investors know that you cannot predict the future of the markets. But smart private wealth managers know that the key to preserving and growing wealth is to anticipate critical trends that are likely to have a lasting impact. Where trends are concerned, 2024 has a lot brewing around the geopolitical conflicts, the explosion of artificial intelligence, the use of alternative investments as portfolio management tools, and the generational transitions that are coming to the family office.
Rising global rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and tightening liquidity conditions have weighed on sentiment in emerging markets (EMs). But EMs may be regaining their footing as easier monetary conditions could drive growth in 2024 for both equities and debt alike. Any recovery, however, is unlikely to be uniform. As a new cycle unfolds, we expect the heterogeneous dynamics and secular trends that drove performance in 2023 to continue to shape market terrain in 2024.
Sound money is the result when interest rates are above the rate of inflation, a development that is expected to persist in the years ahead. In the meantime, the transition to a higher interest rate environment has no doubt challenged investors, who have endured historical losses in bonds and high volatility in stocks. But make no mistake: This structural shift is the single best economic and financial development in the last 20 years. Looking forward and as shown in this report, investors will benefit from a return to sound money.
The Senate Bill 54 (the “SB 54”) was signed into law in California and will take effect March 1, 2025 for all investments made during calendar year 2024. The law will require “covered entities” to report the demographic information of “founding team members” of all companies in which the covered entity has invested. The law is meant to address the lack of venture capital funding flowing to diverse founders and is the first of its kind.