As an uncertain business environment persists, board directors face multiple obstacles: new regulatory changes, issues related to globalization and digital acceleration, the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors being linked to company performance, and more. They are also grappling with the expanding roles and responsibilities. This survey explores the strategies public company boards of directors are considering, including how they plan to pursue growth and increase transparency around strategic shifts.
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Are family businesses really more resilient, agile, and adaptable than other business types? And, if so, have they been able to tackle the challenges of COVID-19 better than most and, perhaps, emerged even stronger? In this report learn how family businesses across the world are mastering a comeback in their businesses and triumphing over COVID-19 to help lead a global economic recovery. The insights revealed are instructive for family firms of all sizes, sectors, and operating models.
There were two distinct periods during the quarter divided by sentiment and performance. The start of the year through February 11 was a “risk-off” period of negative sentiment and sharp declines across asset classes and countries. Many assets had double-digit declines during the first half of the quarter. Sentiment shifted abruptly and most markets rallied starting February 12. Many major indices erased prior losses to post gains for the quarter.
Prior to the Brexit vote on June 23, financial markets were relatively strong. The S&P 500 index was trading just under its all-time high and the British pound was at the highest level of the year. The day after the vote, markets reacted sharply with risk-assets dropping and safe haven assets rising. Oil, the S&P 500, and the FTSE Eurotop 100 fell 5 percent, 4 percent, and 6 percent respectively. Gold gained 4 percent. The sell-off lasted two days and equities regained much of the two-day declines by month-end.
On November 8, 2016, millions of Americans will cast their votes for the next U.S. President. In considering how the new political environment in 2017 will impact the investment landscape, it’s important to keep in mind the words of legendary investor Benjamin Graham: “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Graham was warning investors to avoid focusing on a single-event outcome to the exclusion of other factors.
Chief Investment Officer David Donabedian recaps the first half of 2016 and provides an outlook for economic activity and financial markets in the third quarter of the year. The issues that will have the most impact on the financial markets over the next 12 months are:
Change is in the wind. After a challenging 2015, the investment landscape for 2016 will be defined by a new course for monetary policy and political leadership, a new primary catalyst for stocks and an altered roadmap for credit markets, and for energy. Looking ahead at these asset classes—U.S. equities, international equities, fixed income, commodities, hedged strategies, and private markets—can provide a good sense of the investment outlook over the next twelve months.
Volatility in global equities subsided in the Fourth Quarter of 2015; however, 2016 will likely see multiple spikes due to the follow-through from low oil prices and concerns over China. Other current and fluctuating conditions of global capital markets add to the volatility. Amidst the turmoil, growth should stabilize in 2016 with the impact of China deceleration concerns likely to abate, Japan and Europe being on more stable footing for growth, and the CapEx revival in Europe.
For most financial assets 2015 was a challenging environment, with equities seeing negative or muted performance and fixed income facing its worst year since 2013 as yields slowly moved higher in anticipation of the Fed rate hike in December. Some of the macro themes of 2015 (a strong dollar and monetary tightening in the U.S.) will carry forward into 2016, but some will change and new themes will develop in the global economy. The outlook provides significant investment opportunities while recognizing the current risks and volatility of the market environment.
Important insights lie in the trends hidden under asset class classification of the hedge fund industry, which is expected to grow 25% annually in the next five years from $0.5 to $1.4 trillion dollars. To spot the trends, the asset categories should be useful for family offices to gain meaningful insights of major allocation shifts. A good place to start is to apply the widely recognized industry categories—Equity Hedge, Event Driven, Macro, and Relative Value—to the classification methodology.