Volatility in global equities subsided in the Fourth Quarter of 2015; however, 2016 will likely see multiple spikes due to the follow-through from low oil prices and concerns over China. Other current and fluctuating conditions of global capital markets add to the volatility. Amidst the turmoil, growth should stabilize in 2016 with the impact of China deceleration concerns likely to abate, Japan and Europe being on more stable footing for growth, and the CapEx revival in Europe.
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For most financial assets 2015 was a challenging environment, with equities seeing negative or muted performance and fixed income facing its worst year since 2013 as yields slowly moved higher in anticipation of the Fed rate hike in December. Some of the macro themes of 2015 (a strong dollar and monetary tightening in the U.S.) will carry forward into 2016, but some will change and new themes will develop in the global economy. The outlook provides significant investment opportunities while recognizing the current risks and volatility of the market environment.
Important insights lie in the trends hidden under asset class classification of the hedge fund industry, which is expected to grow 25% annually in the next five years from $0.5 to $1.4 trillion dollars. To spot the trends, the asset categories should be useful for family offices to gain meaningful insights of major allocation shifts. A good place to start is to apply the widely recognized industry categories—Equity Hedge, Event Driven, Macro, and Relative Value—to the classification methodology.
Global equity markets rebounded sharply in October 2015 after the third quarter sell-off due to accommodative monetary policies and some better economic and earnings news. The gains faded late in the quarter on further weak data from China, weak exports, and more stress in the energy and commodity sectors due to oversupply mostly extracted by new technologies. As the world economies work through various transitions and uncertainty, investors are understandably anxious about the outlook for financial markets.
The venture ecosystem in Israel is undergoing an evolution as entrepreneurs are flourishing throughout the country. In November 2015 there were 6,000 start-ups in Israel garnering funding from a new generation of venture funds made up of both spin-outs from existing firms and new VCs. The combination of a vibrant culture of entrepreneurship, support of the government, strong university, multi-national corporations, and existence of venture capital and liquidity has made many bullish on Israel.
Most of the time when families gather, the focus is purely social—reconnecting, reminiscing, and “rest and relaxation” as a group. Occasionally, family members may also gather for limited financial management tasks, such as settling a loved one’s estate, or planning for how to manage shared assets such as land or a family vacation home. These family get-togethers are important to families no matter what their financial circumstances. For families with wealth, though, the need to connect can go beyond the social aspects.
After one of the longest, most volatile and arguably most contentious presidential campaigns in modern American history, Donald Trump has emerged as the president-elect and will be the 45th President of the United States of America. As the immediate shock of the result subsides, the country will begin to sort-out the implications of the election over the coming days. What can you expect moving forward?
Bill Cullo, Jackson Dunn, Kristy Pultorak, and Tom Crawford from the U.S. Public Affairs and Government Relations Team take a closer look at the 2016 U.S. election and provide an analysis on the exit polls and the key takeaways.
We expect the markets’ knee-jerk reaction to sell gold post a Trump victory will reverse with the bottoming process beginning this week. Framed around the well documented bearish arguments of Stan Druckenmiller on gold last week, there are reasons why gold will be more important as the generational bond bull market now closes. As investors begin to look for portfolio diversification and wealth preservation in the new rising rate cycle, gold’s uncorrelated liquid returns will have increasing appeal, particularly with foreign investors hurt by dollar strength.
Markets, United States citizens, and most of the world watched anxiously as the U.S. election unfolded into a Donald Trump victory for President. Initial volatility has tempered, and as market participants digest the uncertainty surrounding future policy, it is important to remember that the election results is yet another factor to work through as an investor. That said, the U.S. economy and political structure are enormous, which will make dramatic changes tough to implement in a month, a year, or even a presidency.