Investors were recently challenged after the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union (the Brexit vote). Although the polls predicted a tight race, the markets were signaling that a vote to remain would prevail. As the facts of the market changed, it was critical that opinions adapted to evaluate whether an investor was on track to reach his or her investment goals or if a change in route was in order. Without denying the longer-term ramifications of Brexit, there are strong supporting indicators that give confidence in the overall health of the global economy.
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Real estate has long been recognized as a diversification vehicle within investment portfolios and often is held in one of two ways: physical real estate and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Although REITs were first created in the early 1960s and have played a notable role for investors since the 1990s, they have not always been a requirement within portfolios for traditional equity investment managers.
With the U.S. election just months away, many are curious what the future holds for the economy and how new political leadership will impact their portfolios. Adding to the uncertainty is the fallout from Brexit and the looming changes that are sure to impact the European Union and beyond. In his mid-year economic forecast, FOX member and Atlantic Trust’s David Donabedian shared his projections on the critical drivers affecting investments and the ramifications expected from changes in the political landscape, both in the U.S. and abroad.
The United Kingdom's Brexit vote was shocking but not surprising. Polling prior to the vote consistently showed a close contest, with "Leave" often in the lead. The Brexit outcome created uncertainty for the financial outlook and markets. Some broad themes have emerged since the vote and may carry over to other markets. Learn more about what investors need to know on the impacts of Brexit.
At times of high uncertainty, the dissemination of information can create more confusion than clarity. The downside of today’s media model has been on prominent display in the days since voters in the United Kingdom cast their Brexit vote, expressing a wish to depart the European Union. In the aftermath, analysts began to project a wide range of separations occurring within regions and countries. It was as if the map of Europe were heading back to its standing of 400 years ago.
The UK has voted to leave the European Union after 40 years of membership, defying the expectations of most market participants and ignoring the warnings from the International Monetary Fund and other leading economists regarding the negative impacts on trade. Market reaction was swift, with the pound falling to a 30-year lows and a “risk-off” trade rippling across the global markets. While the UK leave vote (“Brexit”) has generated volatility and a flight to safety trade in the short term, it has not altered our longer term outlook on global markets.
In a historic referendum, 51.9 percent of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) elected to leave the European Union (EU), catching global markets off guard. Reaction has been significant, with large currency moves, falling yields on perceived safe-haven government bonds, and large sell-offs in the equity markets. Within a day of the vote to leave the EU, the British pound sterling dropped over 6 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.56 percent, and global equities plunged 3 to 9 percent. The spillover effect to the U.S. economy will be minimal, but earnings of U.S.
Britons voted to exit the European Union on June 23, marking the first time any country has left since its formation. The political consequences for Britain’s Prime Minister were swift, and people around the globe reacted with shock and confusion. The economic and investment impact of this decision led to a rising U.S. dollar and falling GDP growth estimates, which will put downward pressure on S&P revenue growth in an environment where sales, margins and corporate profits are already challenged.
After the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU), the global markets shifted to a “risk-off,” with global stocks, the British pound, and the euro all declining while the U.S. dollar, gold, and high-quality U.S. bonds rallied.
Some investors may think that their investment portfolios aren’t “making the grade” because they started investing at a point in the market cycle that has resulted in meager gains or even short-term losses. In volatile environments, a certain discipline is required to stick to an investment plan and avoid the temptation to exit the market. It can be difficult to resist the flight instinct in the midst of negative headlines and geopolitical uncertainty, but staying invested positions investors to capture the next market upswing.