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Many will recall Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," which had a significant impact on the public discussion over the relationship between debt and economic growth following its publication in 2011. In this article, Rockefeller & Co. Senior Advisor and Economist Matthew D. Gelfand dissects Reinhart and Rogoff's analysis.

The new landscape of energy in the United States — in particular, domestic oil and gas — is changing the national discourse on “energy independence,” influencing our economic recovery, and offering opportunities for discriminating investors. This paper takes a closer look at what might be a new renaissance in oil and gas.

In the fourth quarter 2012 issue of Global Foresight, Rockefeller & Co. focuses on the recent QE3 (quantitative easing) announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the related inflation and market implications, along with a discussion of the current geopolitical overlay. David Harris, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, leads with a history of inflation and discusses the issues associated with quantitative easing as well as the potential implications for the stock and bond markets.

The Fiscal Cliff is a mix of laws and measures that will be triggered automatically if Congress takes no action between now and year-end on reducing U.S. debt. The resulting forced austerity will reinstate policies that will reduce the 2013 budget deficit by $607 billion (roughly 4% of current U.S. GDP). Yet if the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio falls from 73% in 2012 to a sustainable 61% in 10 years, how could this be bad? The answer, as always, lies in the details.

When real estate property values, such as housing, are increasing at such a rapid rate that price levels become unsustainable (typically as a function of replacement value, affordability, rental equivalency rates, etc.), a real estate bubble occurs. The consequences of a real estate bubble consist of an inevitable plummet in values and general economic decline. The financial crisis that started in 2007 was caused by the global bursting of real estate bubbles, particularly in residential real estate, and predominantly in the U.S. and Europe.

Investing on the basis of fundamentals has long been a cornerstone for prudent investors. However, the rash of extreme geopolitical events over the past several years has tried investors' patience, riled portfolios and turned sound expectations on their heads. In this white paper, Greycourt & Co., Inc. examines the factors that have contributed to this dilemma and discusses investment strategies investors can implement to ride out the unusual market conditions in a thoughtful and disciplined manner.

The ongoing euro currency crisis has led to substantial declines in European asset prices. Measured relative to operating cash flow, European corporate assets are now selling at a 30% discount to the average of the rest of the world. While some portion of this differential can be explained by a weaker macroeconomic outlook, most of it is attributable to an increase in expected returns. Even if one assumes near-zero real earnings growth, the expected returns on European corporate assets exceed those available elsewhere in the world over an assumed five-year holding period.

While the European Union has made incremental progress in dealing with the Eurozone debt crisis, there still does not appear to be any "magic bullet" solution to the crisis. Market volatility remains likely without substantial new action from the European Central Bank.

The third quarter 2012 issue of Global Foresight focuses on emerging markets. David P. Harris, Chief Investment Officer, assesses prospects across emerging markets. Jimmy C. Chang, Senior Portfolio Manager, delves further into emerging market investment opportunities and examines the trajectory of the largest emerging economy, China.

In the aftermath of 2008’s “Great Recession,” businesses have been more risk averse and held larger cash reserves. This has been a mixed blessing, slowing growth while reducing the likelihood of another economic collapse.