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The pace of U.S. job growth in the next few months will not only determine the outcome of the November presidential election but also whether there will be a sustainable economic recovery. If the sharp slowdown in job creation in March is a precursor for developments in subsequent months as we suspect, the mid-year slowdown witnessed in the past couple of years may well get repeated in 2012.

The weak March U.S. jobs report caught investors by surprise, but we think it’s reflective of the muted growth environment faced by developed nations. U.S. economic activity was likely boosted in the first quarter by exceptionally mild weather, and we should expect some payback during coming months

We continue to be optimistic that earnings will validate market prices, suggesting equities will offer greater reward than bonds. Selected equities also have dividend yields above those available from investment-grade bonds. In many instances, these dividends are supported by growing earnings, raising the likelihood of their increase.

We remain vigilant in assessing near-term and longer-term risks, including U.S. austerity, resurfacing of Eurozone tensions, a Chinese economic slowdown, and oil prices/conflict in Iran. Market gains from here will be built on the back of these risks further receding and the maintenance of global economic growth. We have more confidence in the latter but know the former can result in a bumpy ride.

The effect of high oil prices on the financial markets is not clear, as there is evidence to support both a benign and more worrying view. In general, investors will start to discount a worse economic environment if we sustain significant future price increases, but the current level of global oil prices should not be a deal-killer for growth or risk taking.

Equity valuations are at historically cheap levels given slowly recovering growth in developed markets, robust emerging market demand, global monetary easing, and signs of an improvement in corporate earnings prospects. We believe that this interesting combination of circumstances will underpin continuing buoyancy in equity markets, particularly in Europe.

The economic outlook has become slightly more mixed, especially in regard to the manufacturing sector and consumer spending after adjustments for inflation. Driving these inflation statistics and market anxieties higher were oil prices, and with the average price of gasoline in the U.S. nearing $4 per gallon once again, real questions have emerged about their potential impact on global economic growth.

Upon reflection of many meetings and conversations with economists, investment managers, and officials in Asia, three broad investment themes came out loud and clear: global growth is likely to continue to be muted; this will create some challenges for emerging countries; and Asia will therefore have to consider trade-offs with respect to their economies and politics.

If the current growth trend in bank credit continues, a failure on the part of the FOMC to raise its federal funds rate target and shrink its balance sheet will sow the seeds of a rate of consumer inflation above the FOMC’s 2% annualized target in 2014 and 2015.