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It is often thought that financial success comes with a certain level of financial freedom: the freedom to pursue passions, to take risks, to give back, and to make an even bigger impact. In the 2018 U.S. Trust Insights on Wealth and Worth® survey, the results revealed that only half of high-net-worth individuals have a plan to optimize the opportunities their wealth provides.

Impact investing has gone mainstream. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which regulates single-employer and multi-employer private pension plans, now officially agrees. Recent regulatory guidance clarifies that ERISA fiduciaries may now consider ESG, impact, and other factors in their investment decisions.

Looking back over the first half of 2016, the FTSE 100 index increased by 6.7 percent when dividend payments are taken into account. However, this positive performance disguises the substantial equity market volatility seen in February, and again following the Brexit decision in June. The moves in the headline index are again misleading and market outlook is clouded in political maneuvering.

UK’s vote to leave the EU has escorted in what could be a long period of uncertainty and volatility in the market. There is also skepticism about the recent, liquidity-driven bounce in risky assets. Overall, global equities and bonds should be range bound during the remainder of 2016, although both are at the higher end of their prospective ranges. Volatility will persist due to global uncertainty, and there will most likely be a shift toward fiscal stimulus.

The 'leave' campaign, a victory for the pro-Brexit voters, was quite a surprise to markets and the world. The United Kingdom, based on a referendum of all eligible citizens, voted to leave the European Union (EU) and became the first country to do so. The effects of the referendum vote are already being felt in the political spectrum and the financial markets. However, the structural changes will take some time. Financial markets, on the other hand, have not and will not take years to digest this revolution.

Bond markets globally were off to a slow start at the beginning of the quarter, but began to drive higher as the Brexit vote approached and eventually jumped on the result as investors sought out safe-haven assets. The Barclays Universal Bond Index gained 2.53 percent in the second quarter; the gauge has advanced 5.68 percent so far this year through June. Interestingly, domestic and some international equity markets have largely recovered from their post-Brexit lows, but fixed income markets have remained at elevated levels as investors stay wary of the evolving economic landscape.

There were two distinct periods during the quarter divided by sentiment and performance. The start of the year through February 11 was a “risk-off” period of negative sentiment and sharp declines across asset classes and countries. Many assets had double-digit declines during the first half of the quarter. Sentiment shifted abruptly and most markets rallied starting February 12. Many major indices erased prior losses to post gains for the quarter.

Prior to the Brexit vote on June 23, financial markets were relatively strong. The S&P 500 index was trading just under its all-time high and the British pound was at the highest level of the year. The day after the vote, markets reacted sharply with risk-assets dropping and safe haven assets rising. Oil, the S&P 500, and the FTSE Eurotop 100 fell 5 percent, 4 percent, and 6 percent respectively. Gold gained 4 percent. The sell-off lasted two days and equities regained much of the two-day declines by month-end.

On November 8, 2016, millions of Americans will cast their votes for the next U.S. President. In considering how the new political environment in 2017 will impact the investment landscape, it’s important to keep in mind the words of legendary investor Benjamin Graham: “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Graham was warning investors to avoid focusing on a single-event outcome to the exclusion of other factors.

Chief Investment Officer David Donabedian recaps the first half of 2016 and provides an outlook for economic activity and financial markets in the third quarter of the year. The issues that will have the most impact on the financial markets over the next 12 months are: