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Many will recall Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," which had a significant impact on the public discussion over the relationship between debt and economic growth following its publication in 2011. In this article, Rockefeller & Co. Senior Advisor and Economist Matthew D. Gelfand dissects Reinhart and Rogoff's analysis.

Video biographies are an emerging instrument many ultra-high-net worth families are commissioning to help preserve their history. The biographies allow the wealth builders, or their progeny, to discuss, in their own words, important topics that are of concern to them – family governance issues, estate and tax strategy, philanthropic arrangements and the education and mentoring of their children and grandchildren. This paper examines in detail the merits of commissioning a video family biography to help protect and preserve the family legacy.

With few high yielding alternatives available in today's investing environment "drought", it is not surprising there is a strong demand for high-yield securities. In Aberdeen's view, the current economic environment should provide a highly beneficial climate for high-yield fixed income asset class. High-yield credit spreads are well above where they have been historically when the default outlook is benign, creating an ideal opportunity for investors.

The new landscape of energy in the United States — in particular, domestic oil and gas — is changing the national discourse on “energy independence,” influencing our economic recovery, and offering opportunities for discriminating investors. This paper takes a closer look at what might be a new renaissance in oil and gas.

Liquidity, in simplest terms, is the ability to meet your financial obligations, to cover your interest, principal and expenses. It is commonly thought of ready cash or the ability to convert assets to cash, quickly and without a loss. Why is liquidity important? Having enough cash to handle those shocks and surprises that inevitably occur will help you stave off financial set-backs, even bankruptcy.

Just a couple of decades ago a fortune of $50 million was more than sufficient to justify directly employing a staff of accountants and investment managers to keep track of the family finances, including the holdings of various trusts and foundations. Today, the “break even” point is closer to $250 million and climbing. Hence, many former single-family offices have grown into multi-family offices (“MFOs”).

In the fourth quarter 2012 issue of Global Foresight, Rockefeller & Co. focuses on the recent QE3 (quantitative easing) announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the related inflation and market implications, along with a discussion of the current geopolitical overlay. David Harris, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, leads with a history of inflation and discusses the issues associated with quantitative easing as well as the potential implications for the stock and bond markets.

The Fiscal Cliff is a mix of laws and measures that will be triggered automatically if Congress takes no action between now and year-end on reducing U.S. debt. The resulting forced austerity will reinstate policies that will reduce the 2013 budget deficit by $607 billion (roughly 4% of current U.S. GDP). Yet if the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio falls from 73% in 2012 to a sustainable 61% in 10 years, how could this be bad? The answer, as always, lies in the details.

Many people are aware that the current federal gift and estate tax exemption of $5 million is scheduled to revert to $1 million at the end of 2012. Not only is the exemption set to drop, tax rates are slated to increase from 35 percent to a range that tops out at 55 percent. This means that a single person who makes a $5 million gift on December 31, 2012 would owe no tax. That same gift made on the very next day would result in millions of dollars in tax due. This combination of unhappy tax consequences makes a compelling case for those giving property away before year end.

When real estate property values, such as housing, are increasing at such a rapid rate that price levels become unsustainable (typically as a function of replacement value, affordability, rental equivalency rates, etc.), a real estate bubble occurs. The consequences of a real estate bubble consist of an inevitable plummet in values and general economic decline. The financial crisis that started in 2007 was caused by the global bursting of real estate bubbles, particularly in residential real estate, and predominantly in the U.S. and Europe.