We remain in a cyclical bull market for equities. As has been the case in recent weeks, the European situation will be a periodic negative for U.S. investors. The risk of it turning into a 2008 Lehman-style, global contagion, however, is relatively low. Nevertheless, one chief investment officer is closely watching systemic risk indicators for any such signs.
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Risk assets are likely to stay weak while uncertainty persists. Investment committee members see this gradually creating a buying opportunity because, whatever the outcome for Greece, they believe the ECB will use overwhelming force to protect all other Euro countries, allowing markets to recover.
For financial advisors, starting or expanding family office services can be a challenging task, especially when considering the multi-family office model. This report examines how traditional financial advisors are confronting growing demand for family office services among their wealthy clients.
Equity markets around the globe took a breather from the prior six months’ impressive run-up. Since the 2011 low on October 4, 2011, the MSCI World Index had rallied 22% by the end of March 2012. A mild pull-back is thus nothing unusual. However, the financial market optimism exhibited in the first quarter of 2012 has been tainted with a dose of uncertainty (or perhaps reality) of late. The European sovereign debt crisis has made its presence felt once again, just like the hockey mask-wearing Jason Voorhees character in the Friday the 13th horror film series.
The sluggish pace of growth on a worldwide basis coupled with heightened international geopolitical risk leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to exogenous shocks. Though the probability of the U.S. slipping back into recession has fallen, Fiduciary Trust remains cautious on economic growth going forward.
Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management views the risk of recession as low in the short term. Gas prices have garnered a great deal of attention and do put a dent in the economy’s potential growth rate in the months ahead. However, a sustained increase in the price of oil well above current levels would be necessary to create a recession. The biggest risk to the economy exists in 2013.
We reiterate five themes that serve to protect portfolios to some degree and offer some upside potential: gold as a hedge against currency realignments, oil as a hedge against Middle East instability, exposure to the global consumer over the long term, exposure to Asia (ex-Japan) over the long term, and exposure to relative value hedge managers who can move capital more nimbly and take advantage of asset mispricings.
Investors who prefer a less volatile loan return may favor the U.S. loan market. Less risk-averse investors may find the potential for higher loan returns in the European loan market appealing as they may feel the additional spread premium offered in that market compensates for the additional macroeconomic and market technical risk.
An integrated approach to estate planning and wealth management can achieve a greater likelihood of successful wealth transfer and minimization of transfer taxes. Wealthy clients who embrace this approach can hope to realize their wealth transfer goals early enough in their lifetimes to obviate reliance on transfers at death at significant extra transfer tax cost.
Historically, institutional investors have searched new areas for investments that add return and reduce risk, particularly in today’s volatile and synchronized global financial markets. One area that is coming into focus, with low institutional investment thus far is agriculture. At the same time investor interest grows, the need for capital by agriculture is rising in order to meet the demands placed upon food production by a growing world population, rising incomes and urbanization.