Returning risk appetite in combination with currently oversold equity and commodity markets could end up bringing a strong relief rally. This rather positive but still realistic scenario should put long short equity and emerging market funds (directional strategies) in the best position to outperform other strategies. Managed futures should perform the worst under this assumption, mainly because the deterioration in technical indicators recently forced mid- to long-term trend followers in particular to open net-short positions.
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It appears that uncertainty and volatility are going to be riding with us for a while. There are big risks, to be sure, but big opportunities as well, and the key is to have capital available to capture those opportunities, which means that you have to avoid meaningful losses during the really rough times. It will take prudence and commitment to emerge from this journey safely and securely.
Rockefeller Capital Partners Investment Research Analyst Jessye M. Ball reports on the views of Asian hedge fund managers after a recent trip to the region.
We remain in a cyclical bull market for equities. As has been the case in recent weeks, the European situation will be a periodic negative for U.S. investors. The risk of it turning into a 2008 Lehman-style, global contagion, however, is relatively low. Nevertheless, one chief investment officer is closely watching systemic risk indicators for any such signs.
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Risk assets are likely to stay weak while uncertainty persists. Investment committee members see this gradually creating a buying opportunity because, whatever the outcome for Greece, they believe the ECB will use overwhelming force to protect all other Euro countries, allowing markets to recover.
For financial advisors, starting or expanding family office services can be a challenging task, especially when considering the multi-family office model. This report examines how traditional financial advisors are confronting growing demand for family office services among their wealthy clients.
Equity markets around the globe took a breather from the prior six months’ impressive run-up. Since the 2011 low on October 4, 2011, the MSCI World Index had rallied 22% by the end of March 2012. A mild pull-back is thus nothing unusual. However, the financial market optimism exhibited in the first quarter of 2012 has been tainted with a dose of uncertainty (or perhaps reality) of late. The European sovereign debt crisis has made its presence felt once again, just like the hockey mask-wearing Jason Voorhees character in the Friday the 13th horror film series.
The sluggish pace of growth on a worldwide basis coupled with heightened international geopolitical risk leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to exogenous shocks. Though the probability of the U.S. slipping back into recession has fallen, Fiduciary Trust remains cautious on economic growth going forward.
Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management views the risk of recession as low in the short term. Gas prices have garnered a great deal of attention and do put a dent in the economy’s potential growth rate in the months ahead. However, a sustained increase in the price of oil well above current levels would be necessary to create a recession. The biggest risk to the economy exists in 2013.