A long-term perspective is difficult to maintain through the roller coaster of the past 10 years. It is reasonable to wonder when we will revisit the much preferred bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. While we think world equity markets should earn positive real rates of return over the next five to 10 years, we are less certain there will be a multi-year, low-volatility run-up.
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Credit Suisse believes that directional strategies will likely continue to add value toward the end of the year. On the other hand, while the short-term event risk of the coming weeks is expected to set a challenging environment for the majority of hedge funds, it should be supportive or at least not harmful for global macro managers.
With the looming December 31 expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the threat of sequestration, and the need to raise the debt ceiling in January, neither Democrats nor Republicans will want to face the consequences of inaction and/or no agreement. The nature of these issues and the convergence of interests and deadlines lead us to predict a deal that fully or substantially avoids sequestration, partially extends the Bush tax cuts, and raises the debt ceiling.
The European Central Bank’s new policy direction has helped reduce volatility to more normal levels for this phase of the business cycle. Lower volatility could eventually reduce equity risk premiums and allow for higher stock prices. In fact, it already has. Strong U.S. economic data, record corporate profits, and falling unemployment should help equities as well.
There are many reasons to seek non-correlated investments, even if, like fastastical creatures, they are hard to find. These investments can be highly beneficial to sophisticated investment portfolios, as they provide a great deal of diversification for the dollar.
The extended slump in the U.S. housing market has created a significant opportunity for patient investors. Given the imbalance between prices (weak) and rents (strong), investors willing to participate in a buy-hold-lease strategy have the opportunity to garner attractive current income on stabilized net capitalization rates exceeding 6%, with the potential for significant capital appreciation as the housing market ultimately recovers.
With growth slowly returning to the First World but decelerating in several emerging countries, macroeconomic managers now face different local imperatives, and a divergence in policy response is emerging. The seeming lack of policy coordination sometimes looks disconcerting. However, we are inclined to believe the various financial policy settings will turn out to be consistent with continuing economic recovery for the global economy.
Wealth advisors have a fiduciary responsibility to not only provide clients with unbiased, trusted advice but also to protect the information they deem most important. Clients’ privacy and, more importantly, peace of mind are at risk if advisors do not address and increase their security protocols and procedures.
Grant-making used to require the manual distribution of information, but now grant program administrators can receive, organize, manage, and distribute applications online. The author highlights the benefits of application management systems and provides guidance in selecting the right system for your organization.
The pace of U.S. job growth in the next few months will not only determine the outcome of the November presidential election but also whether there will be a sustainable economic recovery. If the sharp slowdown in job creation in March is a precursor for developments in subsequent months as we suspect, the mid-year slowdown witnessed in the past couple of years may well get repeated in 2012.