The U.S. will continue its expansion in 2012, but solid global growth depends on Europe experiencing only a moderate recession and the emerging market economies gaining momentum as the year progresses. Less inflationary pressure should help growth, but intermittent financial market pressures from the European debt crisis likely will cap investor risk appetite.
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To cope with potential rising inflation, it is important to ensure that portfolios include meaningful exposure to a broader set of assets than just stocks and bonds, especially assets that tend to preserve value in an inflationary environment. This paper reviews the role of real assets in an investor's portfolio and introduces a comprehensive approach to real assets investing.
The most likely outlook for the world economy in 2012 is a global growth recession with global real GDP growth in 2012 of about 3%. The overall economic outlook reflects a full-scale recession in Europe, stagnation or moderate recession in the U.K., near-trend growth in the U.S., continued expansion in Japan, and moderate slowdowns in China and most other emerging markets.
Every family has stories of success and failure, hardships and recovery, lessons learned and long forgotten, and it is these stories that enable members of the family to gain a sense of the family's uniqueness, connect with the source of the family's financial wealth, and deal with losses and transitions. The author suggests three ways to begin preserving these valuable stories.
The key theme in the second half of 2011 was one of moderate, sub-par economic growth accompanied by modest inflation pressures and no change in the federal funds target rate. Expect more of the same in 2012, with the economy expanding 2.0% for the year and small gains coming from many sectors of the economy.
Estate planners who help their clients become more strategic about philanthropy in their legacy planning strengthen relationships with clients and their heirs and significantly increase the likelihood that their clients’ charitable distributions will align with their interests and be more effective. Whether creating a new estate plan or revisiting an existing one, when discussing philanthropy there are certain topics advisors should consider incorporating into every conversation.
Investment strategies based purely on expertise in a particular industry or asset class will be insufficient in 2012; developing a broader view is essential to navigate the increasingly correlated environment. This comprehensive overview is intended to help investors refine their perspective across a host of markets, economies, and industries.
The "can" that policymakers have been kicking ineffectually down the road for the past few years may finally kick back in 2012 and compel positive, long-term structural change. That said, we are facing another year of sharp market volatility and a continued short supply of quality yield.
The tone heading into 2012 is cautious, and the year is likely to be one of continued rolling crises. But the U.S. economy has come far and is on much firmer footing than it was in 2008. It is our view that, moving through 2012, the U.S. economy will continue on a path of recovery, while we recognize the need for investors to be agile and diligent.
This essay is devoted to understanding how two key investment principles – a long-term equity time horizon and diversification – have performed in past periods of severe economic dislocation. Analysis demonstrates that maintaining these principles has proven extremely valuable, particularly in periods of volatility.