Equity markets around the globe took a breather from the prior six months’ impressive run-up. Since the 2011 low on October 4, 2011, the MSCI World Index had rallied 22% by the end of March 2012. A mild pull-back is thus nothing unusual. However, the financial market optimism exhibited in the first quarter of 2012 has been tainted with a dose of uncertainty (or perhaps reality) of late. The European sovereign debt crisis has made its presence felt once again, just like the hockey mask-wearing Jason Voorhees character in the Friday the 13th horror film series.
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The sluggish pace of growth on a worldwide basis coupled with heightened international geopolitical risk leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to exogenous shocks. Though the probability of the U.S. slipping back into recession has fallen, Fiduciary Trust remains cautious on economic growth going forward.
Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management views the risk of recession as low in the short term. Gas prices have garnered a great deal of attention and do put a dent in the economy’s potential growth rate in the months ahead. However, a sustained increase in the price of oil well above current levels would be necessary to create a recession. The biggest risk to the economy exists in 2013.
We reiterate five themes that serve to protect portfolios to some degree and offer some upside potential: gold as a hedge against currency realignments, oil as a hedge against Middle East instability, exposure to the global consumer over the long term, exposure to Asia (ex-Japan) over the long term, and exposure to relative value hedge managers who can move capital more nimbly and take advantage of asset mispricings.
Rather than trying to seasonally time the market, most investors would be better served by staying fully invested unless there are fundamental reasons to reduce stock exposures. Volatility is likely, as investors weigh the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, the slowdown in China, the strength of the U.S. economy, and the resolution of the "fiscal cliff". But looking out longer term, stocks currently look relatively well-positioned, especially compared to alternatives such as cash and bonds.
When it comes to reaching your family’s financial objectives and perpetuating its wealth, integrated family wealth planning is critical. A family governance system can significantly facilitate that process. This evergreen guide offers best practices and key elements of an effective family governance system, one that can be instrumental and flexible enough in equipping your family to navigate the challenges associated with family, business, financial, and legacy continuity.
This paper addresses how inefficiencies may be exploited to help generate alpha. This viewpoint is developed from our assertion that outperformance requires strong fundamental research and insight by skilled managers, and looks at the methods by which alpha may be extracted under the umbrella topics of Concentration, Opacity (or lack of public information), Illiquidity, Leverage, and Skill (COILS).
The global law firm Withers has witnessed an increase in the number of art-related cases coming before the English courts. Although individuals and entities involved in these art disputes will attempt to resolve their differences out of court and through settlement, they often end up in litigation, which carries financial costs. It is important to understand not only how much litigation costs but also the ways in which litigation costs can be funded and in the U.K. (and other jurisdictions where the losing party pays for the costs of the successful party) recovered from the other side.
The most successful family foundations are strategic about how money is given away, to whom it is given and for what purposes, and in evaluation of the programs funded and the role of the funder. This paper examines eight strategies that distinguish the most successful family foundations from the least successful ones.
A long-term perspective is difficult to maintain through the roller coaster of the past 10 years. It is reasonable to wonder when we will revisit the much preferred bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. While we think world equity markets should earn positive real rates of return over the next five to 10 years, we are less certain there will be a multi-year, low-volatility run-up.