During the recent market turbulence, corporate earnings results have continued to be strong, despite fears that slower economic growth could cause corrections. But given the unique developments in this market environment, guarded optimism seems in order because current earnings levels do not seem out of line.
Zero economic activity, confidence and effective policymaking are likely to keep market volatility levels elevated as well as pressure risky asset prices in the near future. However, this uncertainty offers the opportunity for investors to rebalance their portfolios by taking advantage of attractive prices for risk assets.
In the wake of SEC regulation, the best course of action for every family with a family office is to identify promptly the most desirable options for bringing their family into compliance by March 30, 2012 and, at the same time, helping it to turn arid compliance dollars into an optimal structure for achieving its long-term value.
The cost of President Obama's proposed $447 billion Jobs Act would be shouldered by wealthy individuals and their families. And while the proposed credits and deductions for businesses and workers are temporary, the revenue raisers would be detrimental by permanently changing the tax law.
Many commercial real estate markets experienced a debt-financed investment boom, similar to housing, before the economic crisis. That trend is about to boomerang as numerous portfolios are up for refinancing. Sizeable refinancing risks loom, particularly in markets with sharp price corrections from 2005-2007, a poor economic outlook, or both.
While high yield spreads are likely to remain volatile until Europe's problems are resolved, the purge of high leveraged credits during 2008 and 2009, coupled with a lack of aggressive re-leveraging of balance sheets thereafter, should limit the severity of the next default wave absent a severe recession or systemic bank failure in Europe.
The lack of emphasis on jobs has caused unemployment to remain high and become increasingly structural. Structural unemployment typically lasts longer and, as workers lose basic skills, becomes less susceptible to monetary and fiscal measures. That, unfortunately, is where the nation finds itself.
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While things may very well turn out well for risky assets in the coming months, the possibility of a messy European outcome or for further political and economic turmoil in the U.S. is significant and cannot be ignored. Emerging economies, while not immune to the travails of Europe, Japan and the U.S., remain resilient and their stock markets offer good value and growth prospects.
European Union leaders announced a "solution" to the Greek sovereign debt crisis during their July 21 meetings. The market reaction, as it was after earlier "solutions", was positive. Yet, many specifics are unresolved, and it is highly unlikely that these actions will resolve the solvency issue once and for all.