Private equity investing is not without its challenges. However, long-term returns argue for exposure to this asset class for sophisticated investors. The most important considerations are structure of the investment program, access to top-tier performers, and knowledge about emerging private equity firms.
This paper provides answers to such questions as what is an intentionally defective irrevocable trust; what is meant by defective; when is this type of trust appropriate; how does an installment sale to an intentionally defective irrevocable trust work, and what are the tax considerations?
The second quarter played out close to expectations with weak market returns, few unanticipated shocks, and investor worries never escalating to panic. Expectations for capital market returns are now lower, although emerging markets offer growth for patient investors, real assets are a hedge against further monetary devaluation, and the environment seems ideal for fundamental long/short equity positions.
The U.S. economy lacks clear drivers of sustained growth, and there is no "quick fix" for the housing and structurally high unemployment situations. While there is much debate about what the federal government can and cannot do to change this dynamic, it is hard to see any real solution other than a gradual, often volatile recovery pattern over several years.
As we progress through market recovery, investors need to take into account three potentially historic market challenges: the end of the Federal Reserve's QE2 and the possibility of a QE3; Japan's problems of demographics, debt and natural disaster; and the sovereign debt problems of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal.
Given the uncertainty about how long low interest rates will last, now may be a good time to review personal debt as part of overall finances and identify potential refinancing opportunities. In evaluating your borrowing strategy, consider your asset/liability mix, the cost and tax implications of borrowing, and your capacity for debt.
It may be difficult for consumers to sustain current spending levels given the sticker shock of prices at the pump. Add to the mix a move higher in interest rates, cuts in unemployment benefits and other services, and a restructuring of the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid system as we know it, and it would seem the downside risks to growth are mounting.
There is no simple solution to measure the overall risk of a security or portfolio with one statistic. The author recommends that investors use a variety of measures, including spread duration, rating breakdowns, and the average price of securities in each rating category.
While we believe the scale and scope of current market risks are not enough to topple the markets, we feel a correction of some magnitude is warranted given how a confluence of risk factors could adjust global growth expectations. As such, we are recommending a modestly more defensive posture despite seemingly attractive valuations.
We expect 2011 growth will fall into the lower end of the 3.25% to 3.75% range. Pockets of economic weakness are likely to persist – in unemployment, housing and consumer confidence – but the general economic climate is far healthier than was the case a year ago. Political and geo-political issues, we believe, are the most significant threats to continued recovery.