Inflation in emerging economies will remain a concern in the near term but could peak much sooner than expected as tighter monetary policies take hold. The rise in input costs around the globe could potentially impact profit margins; however, low wage growth, positive operating leverage and modest pricing power likely will buffer the downside in most sectors.
Resource Search
This paper addresses a planning technique designed to allow taxpayers to take advantage of the increased exemptions available for the next two years while maintaining some control over the ultimate disposition of wealth.
President Obama's proposed budget for fiscal year 2012 includes a reduction in the real estate exemption, a minimum 10-year term for new GRATs, and restrictions on valuing family-controlled entities as well as higher tax rates and reduced savings from itemized deductions for higher-income individuals.
Municipal securities continue to provide yields in excess of Treasuries, despite their tax-favored status. For tax-exempt accounts, we continue to see opportunities in corporate debt, both investment grade and the highest quality non-investment grade, as well as in select international sovereign debt issues.
Successful investing is often seen as the ability to consistently and accurately make predictions about the economy, markets and specific securities. In reality, success comes less from predicting the future with blinding accuracy and more from selecting securities and vehicles that perform well when an investment thesis proves correct and perform OK when the thesis proves wrong.
Multiple constraints limit the use of leverage, the nature of the assets that can be leveraged and the acceptable levels of total portfolio and asset-specific risks. These constraints can make leverage efficient for only a narrow set of portfolios. Leverage is also subject to concerns such as unanticipated capital calls and illiquidity spirals.
Investors must be aware of the liquidity risk inherent in each asset class, establish a methodology to monitor and measure the liquidity risk premium of each asset class, and factor that into decisions about the appropriate mix of liquid and illiquid investments needed to serve their particular situation.
High-frequency trading has been the focus of public and regulatory attention since the flash crash of May 6, 2010. Crash-related events showed that equity markets may be vulnerable to strategies facilitated by trading technology. As a result, regulators in the United States and Europe are increasing requirements and oversight for high-frequency trading.
While diversification remains the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, many diversifying investments followed the direction of the equity markets when they collapsed during the recent financial crisis. This led many investors to suspect that their asset allocation frameworks needed refining. An analysis suggests these investors may be right.
Despite the natural volatility of the stock market, three themes unfolding over the next decade should benefit equity investors: innovation in technology, healthcare and energy; the rise of developing nations and their demand for consumer goods; and global expansion of trade in goods and services.