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Internal conflicts in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Libya have increased political risk and negative economic costs, warranting downgrades in sovereign debt ratings and continuing negative outlooks. But political change could ultimately be positive since governments with greater legitimacy tend to be more resilient to economic and other shocks.

An annual inventory of belongings in the home is vital as a safeguard, should loss occur. Yet many families ignore this need. Some inventory options include hiring a firm that specializes in this, going room by room with a movie camera, and keeping a photo log of items. Make sure fine art, jewelry and silver are scheduled on a personal property policy.

If the private sector cannot stand on its own legs on June 30, when the second round of quantitative easing is expected to end, the QE policies will have been a colossal flop. Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market hand-off and stability in the currency and financial markets.

We recommend a baseline allocation in our asset allocations in terms of stocks versus bonds and cash, but we also recommend the following tactical allocations: leveraged loans within the bond allocation, dividend-focused stocks within the U.S. large-cap stock allocation, and an allocation of 55% value and 45% growth within U.S. large-cap equities.

The change in market psychology since the 2010 elections and the passage of year-end legislation to renew the Bush administration tax cuts should continue setting a positive tone for financial markets in 2011. We expect an expanding domestic economy, coupled with continued dynamism in the developing world, to set equity markets up for continued gains.

Forecasts for the demise of the bond market have popped up repeatedly during the past two years only to be deflated by yet another bond market rally. Arguably, it is different this time. Rising rates seem close at hand, and this paper provides detail on that view. At the same time, the paper cautions against overestimating the downside risk in bonds.

Thanks to dedicated financial infrastructure and full research coverage, local currency debt is now a plausible and enticing asset class. Fundamentals continue to improve even after being tested by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, while supporting technical factors such as increased liquidity and a broader investor base also have increased its attractiveness.

Until a few years ago, gas prices rose when oil prices increased and fell during times of ample oil supply. However, natural gas is no longer following the usual pattern, due to an abundance of gas resulting from new technologies. Investors who think the gas-oil price link still exists may find themselves making costly mistakes.

Inflation in emerging economies will remain a concern in the near term but could peak much sooner than expected as tighter monetary policies take hold. The rise in input costs around the globe could potentially impact profit margins; however, low wage growth, positive operating leverage and modest pricing power likely will buffer the downside in most sectors.

This paper addresses a planning technique designed to allow taxpayers to take advantage of the increased exemptions available for the next two years while maintaining some control over the ultimate disposition of wealth.