President Obama's proposed budget for fiscal year 2012 includes a reduction in the real estate exemption, a minimum 10-year term for new GRATs, and restrictions on valuing family-controlled entities as well as higher tax rates and reduced savings from itemized deductions for higher-income individuals.
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Municipal securities continue to provide yields in excess of Treasuries, despite their tax-favored status. For tax-exempt accounts, we continue to see opportunities in corporate debt, both investment grade and the highest quality non-investment grade, as well as in select international sovereign debt issues.
Multiple constraints limit the use of leverage, the nature of the assets that can be leveraged and the acceptable levels of total portfolio and asset-specific risks. These constraints can make leverage efficient for only a narrow set of portfolios. Leverage is also subject to concerns such as unanticipated capital calls and illiquidity spirals.
Successful investing is often seen as the ability to consistently and accurately make predictions about the economy, markets and specific securities. In reality, success comes less from predicting the future with blinding accuracy and more from selecting securities and vehicles that perform well when an investment thesis proves correct and perform OK when the thesis proves wrong.
Investors must be aware of the liquidity risk inherent in each asset class, establish a methodology to monitor and measure the liquidity risk premium of each asset class, and factor that into decisions about the appropriate mix of liquid and illiquid investments needed to serve their particular situation.
High-frequency trading has been the focus of public and regulatory attention since the flash crash of May 6, 2010. Crash-related events showed that equity markets may be vulnerable to strategies facilitated by trading technology. As a result, regulators in the United States and Europe are increasing requirements and oversight for high-frequency trading.
While diversification remains the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, many diversifying investments followed the direction of the equity markets when they collapsed during the recent financial crisis. This led many investors to suspect that their asset allocation frameworks needed refining. An analysis suggests these investors may be right.
Despite the natural volatility of the stock market, three themes unfolding over the next decade should benefit equity investors: innovation in technology, healthcare and energy; the rise of developing nations and their demand for consumer goods; and global expansion of trade in goods and services.
The combination of an enhanced European-level policy response, fiscal austerity and structural reform at the national level, plus a more broad-based and secure economic recovery, should bring normalization to the Euro-area sovereign debt crisis by 2012. But if one or more of these expectations is not realized, the crisis may intensify.
Whole life and universal life insurance have been hit especially hard by continued low interest rates. As a result, carriers are introducing products that increasingly shift the risk of future product performance to the consumer. Because of these risks, consumers must make the effort to understand what is behind the assumptions presented by insurers.